The Failed Energy Truce Shows Why a Quick Peace in Ukraine Would Not Last
Ukraine is being pushed toward a bargain to exchange land for peace. Ukrainians — who are already forgetting what a so-called normal life feels like — want peace more than anyone else. They need it. But the choice they are facing comes with a catch.
They face a choice between a short-lived peace that postpones another devastating war and a chance — remote, but real — for a durable future. It is a diabolical, twisted version of the famous experiment that tested children’s ability to delay gratification with marshmallows, in which the second option brings the most rewards.
Russia launched the latest round of negotiations in Abu Dhabi in the most cynical way possible — by pairing them with its most severe winter attack to date. This time, they didn’t target power generation itself, but heating systems. Russian media called it “fireworks for Rutte,” as the NATO Secretary General was in Kyiv at the time. The evidence that Russia is not ready for peace is as clear as day.
As temperatures across Ukraine fell to minus 10 degrees Celsius on average, and in some regions as low as minus 25 degrees at night, Russia escalated strikes precisely to maximize civilian suffering.
The year started with an emergency shutdown to prevent systemic collapse. Then, overnight on Feb. 3, Russia targeted Ukraine with 450 drones and 71 missiles, many of which were ballistic missiles that can be intercepted only by Patriot systems. Thermal power plants supplying heat to Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro and Odesa regions were hit, leaving hundreds of thousands without minimally bearable living conditions.
While conditions differ across regions — and even between districts of the same city — indoor temperatures in apartments drop below freezing in the worst cases. Layering clothing is no longer enough. Films about survival after plane crashes in snow-covered mountains stop feeling like stories of heroism and become sources of practical advice. Watching them, you begin to empathize with the characters on a level that was........
