A serviceman of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine launches an UAV for a patrol flight along the Ukraine-Belarus border in Chernigiv region on June 1, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. AFP-TNS

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Washington and Europe expected a quick Russian victory. Russia’s population was more than three times that of Ukraine, its military four times larger and gross domestic product 10 times bigger. The power imbalance was just too great. That Russia was entirely in the wrong meant little. Any realist would tell you Ukraine would fall.

Then President Volodymyr Zelenskyy refused to flee, and Russia couldn’t take Kyiv. Observers decided that Ukraine just might be able to stave off defeat, as long as generous U.S. military assistance kept coming. Ukraine faced steep losses but stayed in the fight.

Then Donald Trump returned to the U.S. presidency in January 2025. He had spent years blaming Ukraine for being invaded and covering for Vladimir Putin’s war crimes, so it now seemed inevitable that U.S. support would end and Ukraine would lose. U.S. assistance nearly dried up, and Trump pressed Zelenskyy to accept Putin’s terms. Observers in Washington and European capitals began to debate exactly how much territory Ukraine would have to surrender to sue for peace.

And yet, 18 months into Trump’s second term and four years into Russia’s full-scale war, Ukraine still hasn’t fallen. In fact, it’s beginning to gain........

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