For reasons that could range from good to atrocious, U.S. President Donald Trump wants a three-way summit with his Russian and Chinese counterparts when the three men are in Shenzhen next month for an economic forum.

In the worst scenario, Trump and Xi Jinping would conspire to doom Ukraine to Vladimir Putin’s subjugation. In the best, however, they would open a long and necessary process toward an eventual nuclear detente among the U.S., Russia and China. Trump claims he wants this trilateral meeting “not so much for Ukraine” but “to talk about nuclear weapons and denuclearization.” Let’s take him at his word.

What would such talks look like? And what lesson could Trump take from a West German chancellor in the 1970s?

At least three developments — even aside from new dangers such as artificial intelligence entering the nuclear command chains — make trilateral nuclear talks urgent.

First, since the expiration this year of the last arms-control treaty between the U.S. and Russia, no formal limits constrain the nine nuclear powers at all.

Second, whereas arms control used to be a (relatively) simple matter between the two atomic superpowers — Russia and the U.S. still account for 86% of all nukes — it is now a much more complicated “three-body problem” because China is fast catching up. And the U.S. must assume that Moscow and Beijing could one day gang up against Washington.

And third, today’s arms race isn’t only about the number of nukes but........

© The Japan Times