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AI is proving a 100-year-old prediction true

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Great minds go off on odd tangents. In 1930, John Maynard Keynes took time out from thinking about the Great Depression, which was throwing millions out of work, to write a charming essay about the "economic possibilities for our grandchildren.” What would life be like a hundred years hence, he asked. His answer: The depression would prove to be no more than a temporary blip, economic progress would resume its benevolent course, but then the real problems would start.

The combination of innovation and compound interest would solve the problem that had dogged humanity since Adam and Eve: how to make ends meet. Our grandchildren would be able to meet all their material needs by working 15 hours a week. But this would leave what Keynes called "the permanent problem of the human race.” How to use the resulting freedom from economic necessity to live a good life — or as Keynes put it "how to live wisely and agreeably and well.”

Keynes’ work on the problem of leisure has not been treated with the same reverence as his work on solving the problem of the great depression (he published his "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" in 1936). Many successful people work 60-plus hours a week. Over 80% of Americans report "never having enough time.” Keynes clearly underestimated the extent to which people would define the notion of "enough” ever upward or generally prefer work to leisure.


© The Japan Times