In typically braggadocious fashion, Donald Trump announced in a social media post on Sunday that “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete.” However, as so often with the American president’s utterings, the reality is far from this. What is clear is that the US and Iran have agreed on framework to end the war launched by the US and Israel on February 28th, with a signing ceremony likely to take place in Geneva on Friday. This is to be followed by a 60-day period in which most of the substantial issues that divide the two sides will be addressed. In the absence of publication of any written text of the “deal”, there is limited clarity regarding anything else. Equally, it remains unclear which – if any – of the war objectives set out by the US and Israel at its outset have been achieved.

The main achievement that is being loudly proclaimed by Trump and his supporters is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which, as the whole world has now learned, a significant percentage of global oil supplies and much more transits. However, in securing its reopening, Trump has simply restored the status quo ante. The strait was closed by Iran in response to the war’s launch in February, having previously been open to maritime traffic.

Trump claims that passage through the strait will be “toll-free”. The Iranian Fars news agency reported that Iran would regulate marine traffic through the Gulf in co-ordination with Oman under the emerging ceasefire arrangement.

The differences between the two sides do not stop there. The semi-official Mehr news agency reported that the agreement provides for the release of frozen Iranian assets to the value of $12 billion during the 60-day period, half of which is to be released before negotiations begin. An unnamed US official rejected this, telling........

© The Irish Times