In October 1986, the world’s two undisputed superpowers met at an unprepossessing house in a desolate Reykjavik park, facing the grey North Atlantic. Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev arrived discreetly, without pomp or ceremony, and – along with a few critical advisers – tried to reach an agreement on nuclear proliferation. Visiting the site decades later, I was struck by the modest nature of the location. This was the sort of place people came to get a deal done, the austerity of the architecture signalling competence and gravity. Contrast that solemnity with the al fresco, high-camp pageantry of Thursday’s summit at the Temple of Heaven in Beijing.

The collapse of the all-powerful Soviet Union within years of that Icelandic summit convinced the Chinese politburo to turn its back on anything as anarchic, and in their eyes irresponsible, as democracy. Control beats chaos every time; authority outperforms anarchy.

Since then, China’s outperformance has been startling.

By prioritising getting rich without free speech, the politburo’s management has helped hundreds of millions of Chinese to lift themselves out of poverty, becoming the world’s largest and most dynamic middle class. This very success has led many to conclude that a conflict between the US and China is now inevitable, as a new superpower rises, threatening the old power, prompting a counter-reaction from the incumbent.

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The notion that some sort of conflict is inevitable is termed the Thucydides Trap and........

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