As the end of 2025 approaches, it seems like an opportune moment to reflect on the system of governance in the north and assess the likelihood of meaningful change in 2026. 

On a positive note, the north is experiencing a period of relative political stability. In February 2024 the Assembly and Executive were restored, and a Programme for Government (PfG) and departmental budgets have been agreed.

The multi-year financial settlement from Westminster provides an important opportunity to provide clarity, plan ahead and address long-standing, systemic issues.

The finance minister, John O’Dowd, has said he is confident the Executive will agree a multi-year budget before the end of this year. 

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For over 15 years our politicians have decried the absence of a stable financial framework.

It has been repeatedly suggested that single-year budgets have had far reaching consequences across the public sector. They hampered long-term planning and meant the delivery of transformational projects in areas such as health and infrastructure was nigh-on impossible.

Additionally, they created undue pressure and uncertainty, particularly for those in the voluntary and community sector.

It is widely hoped that these changes to the fiscal framework will mark the end of short-term management and pave the way for long-overdue strategic planning and reform. 

Despite these welcome changes to the fiscal rules, many of our politicians have been quick to point out that even if long-term financial planning can be agreed, it will not be a panacea. It will not solve our deeply rooted structural or economic woes.

Both of the main parties of government have repeatedly stated that the north has been underfunded. ‘We need more money’ has become the constant refrain from those with their hands on the levers of power.

How realistic is this claim? How long can it be used as a way of avoiding responsibility for serial financial mismanagement?

Recent research by the think tank Pivotal and the Fiscal Council has demonstrated that Northern Ireland is receiving a fair level of funding to reflect its level of need compared to England, and in fact well above its level of need in the past.

The Executive now have a record settlement of £18bn in 2025-26, an increase of £1.5bn. Funding in the autumn Budget exceeds 124% of comparable funding per person in the rest of the UK.

So why has this amount not been enough to deliver high-quality, sustainable services? Largely because the issue is not how much we spend, but how we spend it.

There are serious concerns around the management of public finances, inefficiencies, duplications, value for money and waste. 

Delivery failures, large and small, are routinely blamed on austerity and successive British governments. 

This rhetoric is simply not credible. For example, the completion date for the new maternity hospital was December 2015 at a cost of £57.2m. A decade later, there is still no sign of the hospital, and the latest estimate of costs is £97.1m.

Or the A5 project. It is estimated that to date approximately £150m has been spent and yet not one inch of tarmac has been laid.

The Northern Ireland Audit Office consistently highlight systemic issues in public procurement such as poor planning, a lack of accountability, missed targets, low levels of productivity, workforce issues and a failure to deliver for the economy.

It is an insult to our intelligence to repeatedly claim that our woes are due to a lack of money. The inability to deliver major projects in a timely and cost-effective manner is deeply troubling, and the refusal to take ownership of these shortcomings adds insult to injury. 

There is growing support for reform of the institutions, as the current set-up is not delivering good governance. Sham fights and meaningless motions are as good as it gets. Some are advocating for major reforms such as replacing the mandatory coalition with a voluntary arrangement, whilst others are supportive of more modest changes. 

However, structural change alone cannot deliver effective government. There is room for institutional reform, but any system will only work if the key actors share a sense of common purpose.

The importance of political culture cannot be underestimated. Making government work requires compromise and cooperation. Moving from the politics of protest, posturing and populism to problem-solving and pragmatism remains a significant challenge.

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We are heading towards a financial crisis as we move deeper and deeper into debt, deliberately overspending and refusing to countenance revenue-raising.

Fiscal responsibility is a pipe dream. The north is spiralling downwards, yet there is an unwillingness to tackle complex problems. 

There are no new ideas, no major reforms, no policy innovation and no sign of the much-heralded journey of transformation.

If the current administration, which is marked by dysfunction, delay and division, stumbles on directionless, then it is a government in name only.

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