Within weeks of Kemi Badenoch replacing Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative Party, in October 2024, ratings for her and the party began to plummet in polls.

By late spring of 2025, it was clear that moves were afoot to prise her from the leadership. Those moves were being orchestrated by Robert Jenrick, her opponent the previous October and determined to build on the 43.5% he had won in the members’ ballot.

His decision to defect to Reform UK is not really a surprise, although it does suggest two things: he now thinks that he can’t oust her as leader; and he thinks that the Conservatives are likely to do so badly in the next general election (not officially due until 2029) that being leader would be a waste of time.

Indeed, a particularly bad result at that election would probably see him ousted and consigned to some sort of backbench opposition wilderness for another five years.

Trump’s deluded Davos boasts should alarm the world - The Irish News view

I’ve never been a particular admirer of Jenrick. He has an even more inflated view of his importance than most senior figures in politics and his career, so far, has been more blip than boom.

Had he beaten Badenoch, I’m quite sure he would have followed the route trod by Boris Johnson in late 2019 and tried to reach some sort of........

© The Irish News