MY interview with John Taylor – published in this paper on February 28 – generated a lot of traction.

I wasn’t entirely surprised: it has been years since he has given a lengthy sit-down interview to anyone and, particularly surprisingly, he used the opportunity to take the conversation in a direction I wasn’t expecting.

That direction was his belief that a united Ireland is much more likely than not.

Taylor, now 88, was one of the biggest names in unionism since the mid-1970s.

Denis Bradley: Thank you John Taylor for transforming the Irish unity debate

A key player in the UUP, as MP, MLA, MEP and deputy leader, he was instrumental in bringing down Brian Faulkner in January 1974 and similarly instrumental in ensuring that David Trimble was able to get the Good Friday Agreement over the line in April 1998.

So, when someone like Taylor, who joined the UUP about 70 years ago, expresses his concerns about the future of Northern Ireland within the United Kingdom, his comments should be taken very seriously.

Because he was very clear when I spoke to him. He has certainly slowed down, but his memory of events wasn’t faltering or vague.

And I’m saying that to counter some elements of online unionism and loyalism who have been trying to give the impression that he is somehow old and doddery.

Which they wouldn’t, of course, have suggested, had he come down very strongly in favour of the union’s safety.

As I noted in the interview, I don’t agree with his assessment that the prospect of a united Ireland is accompanied by anything like inevitability.

A border poll is likely to come sooner than most people think, but even that won’t happen until both the British and Irish governments agree on the timing.

There have never been any fixed terms and conditions for a poll, anyway, and I don’t think there is anyone, outside of a very tight London/Dublin circle, who actually knows – and knows with certainty – what would trigger a poll.

Any time – and it happens fairly regularly – someone tells me that there won’t and can’t be a border poll because, because, because... I reply: I’m old enough to remember senior unionist politicians saying the NI Parliament wouldn’t be shut down in 1972; other senior politicians dismissing the talk about the Anglo-Irish Agreement in 1985 and the Downing Street Declaration (‘no selfish strategic or economic interest…’) in 1993; and, more recently, promises from Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak being jettisoned in order to get a deal with the EU which shoved Northern Ireland into the constitutional equivalent of a granny flat between 2019 and 2022.

Once a British government has made up its mind – and when it comes to NI, the decision is usually backed across the House – the interests and concerns of unionism here will be abandoned.

When Taylor warns unionism to be prepared for anything which the government might do, he is bang on the money.

Time after time I could point to moments – key moments, as it turned out – when unionism has been caught on the hop by what successive British governments have done.

And done even though it was supposedly being reassured by members of the government concerned that all was well.

Crucially, these policies were voted over the line by substantial majorities which have included MPs (remember the 100+ members of the ERG and the 2022 Framework deal) who had promised to rebel.

There is a complaint common across all shades and factions (it’s a huge and diverse community) of unionism, and it can be summed up like this: When was the last time you remember a British government unambiguously prioritising unionist interests in Northern Ireland?

Or when was the last time you believed a British government was completely – or even mostly – on our side?

That is – and I put him over this a number of ways during the interview – what Taylor is telling unionists to ask themselves. In other words, assume nothing, but be prepared for everything and anything.

I have interviewed a number of people who played a key role in the 1974 Ulster Workers’ Council strike and every one of them told me that it didn’t deliver an alternative of long-term advantage to unionism.

The same with the AIA protests in 1985. And unionism has still failed to secure any alternative to the Protocol and Framework.

Which is because, I think, unionism had never done the game planning required for those and other crises.

It’s okay to say Taylor is overly pessimistic about a united Ireland. But it would be thoroughly stupid to say he is completely wrong about either the general direction of travel of British governments over the decades (he was a key player back in the day and now admits unionism got key issues wrong), or the lack of general preparation across unionism for potential crises and setbacks.

He may be old, but there was a great deal of wisdom in what he said.

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