President Trump once claimed he could end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours. That was absurd. More recently, people close to him have offered a longer timeline, measured in months. Even that will prove a daunting challenge: a wide chasm separates the warring parties.

If Trump is serious about brokering a durable settlement, he will need leverage with both.

Nearly three years after Russia launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine, the conflict has evolved into a bloody war of attrition. The Russian military had momentum in 2024, but it gained only 1,600 square miles or less than one percent of Ukraine’s territory. In total, Russia’s army today occupies about 18 percent of Ukraine, less than it did in 2022.

Polls in Ukraine show growing support for negotiations, though a sizable number of Ukrainians still oppose territorial concessions. In late 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested........

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