Democrats on cusp of House majority after Virginia win: Forecaster

A nonpartisan election handicapper put Democrats on the verge of winning the House majority in 2026 after the party’s redistricting victory in Virginia this week.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, published by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, shifted four Virginia House districts in Democrats’ favor on Tuesday after voters approved a redistricting map that was expected to expand Democrats’ 6-5 advantage in the state’s congressional delegation to a 10-1 edge.

With the new map, Sabato’s Crystal Ball has 217 districts rated as at least leaning toward Democrats, 205 seats at least leaning Republican and 13 seats marked as toss-ups.

Before the vote, the top election handicapper had 213 districts at least leaning Democratic, 208 at least leaning Republican and 14 toss-ups.

“Democrats are on the cusp of the magic number of 218 in our ratings,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said in his analysis.

He acknowledged the prediction could change, since “there are other dominoes that might fall on redistricting,” including in Florida, where a GOP-backed........

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