Democrats hold 6-point advantage in battleground districts: Poll

Voters in key battleground districts say they would back the average Democrat over the generic Republican as their representative in Congress, according to a new poll from Cook Political Report.

Democrats hold a 6 percentage point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, leading Republicans 50 percent to 44 percent in a survey of the 36 districts most likely to determine the outcome of the November midterms.

The survey, conducted in the second week of April, includes districts that Cook Political Report rated as “toss up,” “lean Republican” or “lean Democrat” — which President Trump won in 2024 by an average of 2 percentage points.

The analysis called the new poll “a flashing red warning light for the fall” for Republican candidates in competitive districts.

“If that advantage were to hold come November, any district Trump carried by 10 points or less could be in significant danger of flipping into Democratic hands,” the report’s Amy Walter and Carrie Dann wrote in their analysis.

Independent voters seem to be driving much of the shift away from the GOP — with 70 percent now disapproving of Trump’s job in office, compared to the president’s 58 percent overall disapproval rating.

Comparisons to Democrats’ last successful midterms cycle also bode well for the party.  

Exit polls from the 2018 midterms show independent voters backed Democratic candidates by a 12-point margin. In the latest Cook Political Report poll, independents favored a generic Democratic candidate by 25 points.

The pollsters noted that Democrats also have an intensity advantage — benefiting from stronger turnout in special elections that have taken place since 2024 and which the latest poll suggests is likely to continue.

In the 36 battleground districts, Democrats are more likely to say they’re motivated to turn out to vote this November, with a 14-point advantage over Republicans, 70 percent to 56 percent.

The poll of 1,029 likely voters was conducted April 7-14 by New River Strategies and the GS Strategy Group. The margin of error is 3.06 percentage points.

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