Republicans may gain nothing from redistricting: DDHQ

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Today's Top Stories - September 15, 2026

Today's Top Stories - September 15, 2026

Republicans aiming to gain seats in Congress after several GOP-controlled states redrew their congressional maps in the last year may gain nothing in the November midterm elections, according to the election handicapper Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).

DDHQ’s election forecast on Tuesday shows Democrats having a 68 percent probability of winning the House compared to Republicans’ 32 percent.

“In Decision Desk HQ’s forecast, Democrats not only achieve an average gain of 13 seats in the states with unchanged boundaries, they also gain an average of two seats across the nine states that redistricted,” DDHQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley wrote on Substack.

Democrats won an average seat majority of 229-206 across the forecast’s 1 million simulations, resulting in a 14-seat gain, Skelley wrote. But factoring in the states with redrawn congressional maps, he said that Democrats make an average gain of 13 seats in the 41 states that did not redistrict, which Skelley emphasized as being the party’s “path to a........

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