Will Trump’s moves to bring down gas prices actually work?

The Trump administration has rolled out a slew of policies aimed at bringing down rising gasoline prices amid the war with Iran, but experts say they’re unlikely to have much of an effect.

Analysts who spoke with The Hill said that the only way to meaningfully bring down prices is to open up the Strait of Hormuz.

Shipping through the key channel has effectively halted, cutting off a significant share of the world’s oil supply.

As a result, oil and gasoline prices have skyrocketed. On Wednesday, the average U.S. gas price was up 92 cents from where it was a month prior.

The Trump administration has made several moves in an attempt to keep prices under control.

On Wednesday, the administration announced it was issuing a temporary waiver of the Jones Act, a law that requires shipping between U.S. ports to be done by U.S.-flagged ships.

The administration has also moved to release oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), lift some sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan oil and boost oil production off California’s coast.

But oil experts don’t expect those changes to produce significant reductions on their own.

“At the end of the day, there is only one real solution to the energy price issue, and that is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow more oil supply onto world markets,” said Edmund Crooks, vice chair of the Americas at research firm Wood Mackenzie.

“Beyond that, there’s honestly not a lot you can do,” Crooks added. “There are things that can be done at the margin — might make a little bit of difference here and there — but fundamentally, it’s all about … getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened.”

“The only policy option that there is, is to open the Strait of Hormuz,” said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy.

“The Strait of Hormuz is causing, currently, between 6 and 8 million barrels a day of production shut in, and even if you make the largest SPR release ever in history, you can get, maximum…1 to 2 million barrels a day…. and, by the way, that would be for a limited period of time,” he said. 

“There is no way to calm the market with SPR or the Russian sanctions lifting,” he added. “They don’t go deep enough.”

The efforts may be enough, however, to bring down prices at least a little.

A 2022 JPMorgan analysis found that a Jones Act waiver could save East Coast drivers about 10 cents per gallon.

Meanwhile, Crooks said that if the war goes on for a long time, ramping up oil production now could mitigate costs over the long term. But that’s complicated, because moves to defray costs that are a long time away would require action now, while the conflict’s duration is far from clear.

“That creates a kind of a Catch-22 for U.S. oil producers. They don’t want to invest a load of money right now seeing the short-term high oil prices, and then get caught out if oil prices are a lot lower six months from now,” Crooks said.

But, he noted, “there are things that the administration could do in terms of guaranteeing prices.”

“Maybe the U.S. could say it’s going to purchase oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a particular price…or it could provide financing for the industry,” he said. 

Galimberti said his firm is operating under the assumption that the conflict will be short-lived.

“We do believe that there are incentives for both sides to come to a cease-fire within the next few weeks,” he said.

“We believe that the closure of [the] Strait of Hormuz  is too big of a problem for the entire world, and as a result of that, there’s going to be an enormous pressure for Iran to come at least to a cease fire,” he said, adding that this could be in about three to four weeks and saying the market could take an additional four weeks to adjust.

The Trump administration has also taken steps aimed at opening up the Strait of Hormuz– but it’s also not clear if they will work. 

President Trump said the U.S. Navy could escort ships attempting to traverse the channel and has sought to put together a coalition of countries to work together to reopen the Strait — but the move has been publicly rebuffed by several world leaders.

For now, Americans are expected to struggle with pain at the pump as energy prices continue to surge. As of Wednesday afternoon, international benchmark Brent Crude was trading at about $111 per barrel, up from about $73 per barrel before the conflict.

“The gasoline prices, the oil prices, will remain high as long as the conflict goes on,” Galimberti said. 

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