How rising mortgage rates are hitting the housing market hard — at a terrible time for GOP

Rising mortgage rates are lowering the odds of prospective homebuyers entering the market and adding to the tough economic slate for President Trump and the GOP just weeks ahead of the midterms.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.28 percent last week — the highest mark since late November 2023, according to data from Freddie Mac. The average rate also rose by a quarter point from the week prior, the largest week to week increase in four-plus years.

Rising mortgage rates are part of a rough financial ledger for Trump and Republicans, as inflation remains above 3 percent and fuel prices stay high amid the Iran war.

“Economy, cost of living, that kind of congealing will be [important], certainly it has been for the last … two years, for voters in ’26,” GOP strategist Matt Gorman told The Hill. 

Experts point to multiple factors as to why mortgage rates have shot up above 7 percent. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), noted increased energy prices during the Iran conflict have pushed up inflation.

Annual inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, has surged from 2.8 percent in February to 3.4 percent in August, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The upticks in prices track with rising mortgage rates. The average 30-year rate, after sinking by 28 basis points from the week before Thanksgiving 2025 to late February 2026, has risen by nearly 1.3 percentage points since the week before the U.S. and Israel launched the Iran war.

Persistent inflation led to the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates by a quarter point last month. But the federal funds rate, which dictates what rates banks charge for overnight loans, does not directly impact mortgage........

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