Trump’s attack on Iran has Putin-Xi axis of evil reeling

Notwithstanding predictable partisan hand wringing on Capitol Hill over the war in Iran, the conflict has sent the Russia-China axis reeling. 

The toppling of Nicolás Maduro in January was just the start of a much broader plan. Trump’s pressure on Cuba is the second salvo. But Iran has now become the main effort.

In just two months, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have helplessly watched as three of their prized allies are being overwhelmed by U.S. military power.

Putin and Xi have argued that we now live in a multi-polar world. And that may be the case when measured in economic terms. But this year’s events are showing that this is still very much a U.S. hegemonic world when it comes to military power.

Offense is often the best defense.

For 47 years, of the Islamic Republic of Iran has shouted, “Death to America,” and it has killed 1,600-plus Americans. Trump has finally decided it’s time for the mullahs to find out. He has shelved the endless diplomacy and set aside the strategic deterrence policy that had not stopped Americans from dying at the hands of the Iranians.

This is why observers like the former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul miss the point when they argue that “there was no imminent threat of our homeland being attacked by Iran.” The threat, especially to our citizens and troops, has been imminent since Nov. 4, 1979, when the Islamic Republic of Iran detained more than 50 American diplomats and held them as hostages for 444 days.

For those U.S. soldiers in harm’s way, Iran’s threat to America was not only imminent but very real and active. Just during the Biden administration, Iran-sponsored militias attacked U.S. forces in Syria, Iraq and Jordan more than 250 times. Roughly 80 of those attacks came before the massacre of Oct. 7, 2023, in which Hamas — one of the 15 major militia groups in the Middle East funded, sponsored and directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — killed 46 Americans and took 12 others hostage in Israel.

McFaul means well. Indeed, he is right about the need to confront Putin head on and give Ukraine what it needs to defeat and expel Russia’s military from all of its illegally occupied territories, including Crimea. What McFaul fails to understand is that victory in Ukraine cannot happen without dealing a wider defeat to the entire Axis of Evil that is supporting Putin’s military operation.

Putin’s threat to Europe, including his ongoing threat to U.S. military forces across the region, is imminent, especially in Ukraine. Significantly, Iranian Shahed drones and manufacturing assistance have enabled Putin’s war machine to attack Ukraine’s civilian energy and critical infrastructure on a near-daily basis. Likewise, Iran’s own shadow fleet of oil tankers has helped fund Putin’s war effort by exporting oil through the black market.

Moscow’s reliance on its axis partners — including North Korean troops, artillery and munitions — has also been nefarious. As we previously noted, the Kremlin used the October 7 massacre to stretch U.S. military assets in 2023. Two days after Hamas attacked Israel, Russian forces launched a major offensive against Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, which eventually toppled the strategic Ukrainian stronghold in the Donetsk oblast.

The Axis of Evil was never stronger than it was in early 2024, when the West was reeling as a result of Team Biden’s “just enough” approach to managing the conflict in Ukraine. Putin took full advantage of this misguided strategy, which unwittingly acted as a force multiplier for Putin and his axis.

Last June, Team Trump proved it was ready to confront Putin and Xi by attacking Iran’s nuclear weapons program in Isfahan, Fordow and Natanz. This showed the axis that it would no longer enjoy immunity.

Then, in January, Team Trump let fly with its Venezuela operation. This was no isolated action, but rather a designed shot at Russia and China that systematically began attacking their key sources of oil. Similar considerations have motivated Trump’s interest in actions in Nigeria.

Now, in a spectacular way, this campaign has moved on to Iran. And after just two months, Beijing, ahead of any action against Taiwan, has lost three three vital sources of oil for its highly oil-dependent economy.

Iran cannot simply be viewed as a regional Middle Eastern threat. It must also be considered a global imminent threat, given its key role as an ally of Putin and Xi. That role is now coming to an end at the hands of the U.S. and Israel, leaving Putin and Xi reeling.

Among other things, it means that victory in Ukraine — if Trump seizes the opportunity — may have just gotten a lot easier.

Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. They are the co-founders of INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack.

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