Madman theory: Playing crazy doesn’t work — in diplomacy or in love

President Richard Nixon coined the term in the summer of 1968, reportedly whispering it to his chief of staff like a trade secret: “I call it the Madman Theory, Bob.”

Madman theory is the idea that you convince your enemies that you are unhinged enough to push the nuclear button, so that they blink first. It’s sort of like a souped-up, high-stakes version of the game of chicken.

Over 50 years later, President Trump has fully leaned into this strategy on the world stage with a fervor and audacity that would make Nixon blush. I’m all for it if it works, but the real question is, does it?

The answer seems to be no. Both political scientists and relationship therapists agree that performed and manufactured chaos almost never works as a power move — not between nations and not between people.  

The logic of playing crazy is highly seductive in both arenas. In geopolitics, a foreign adversary who cannot predict your moves cannot easily plan against you. And we have all experienced this on a personal level on one side or the other. In romance, this exact same instinct rears its seductive head as the “hot and cold” play — pull back, create uncertainty, keep them guessing, don’t let them know how you really feel.

In both situations, the underlying idea is identical: Unpredictability creates leverage. If the other party is anxious enough about losing you or provoking you, then you retain all the power.

The record on the geopolitical version is a damning failure on all fronts. I might be a little biased, as I grew up with my father calling Nixon a “shmuck,” but facts are facts.........

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