Ukraine’s energy strategy is built for Russia’s attacks but not global shocks

As Ukraine prepares for another winter under Russian attacks, its energy strategy is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Large power plants and centralized networks remain essential, but cities are increasingly turning to distributed generation: gas-fired units, cogeneration, modular boiler houses, solar panels, batteries and backup generators. 

The logic is clear. A single missile strike can disable a large power facility, while hundreds of smaller sources spread across a city are harder to eliminate at once. 

Ukraine’s government has made distributed generation and decentralized heating central elements of its resilience plans for the upcoming winter. More than $1.4 billion has been allocated for these plans, with another $210 million coming from local budgets.  

But decentralization should not be confused with energy independence. 

Ukraine may become less dependent on a centralized electricity grid while becoming more dependent on fuel, gas infrastructure, imported equipment and global energy markets. That distinction matters especially now, as the war between the U.S. and Iran has increased volatility in international energy markets.

Ukraine’s dependence on imported petroleum products is already significant. Wartime destruction of domestic refining capacity has forced the country to rely heavily on imports, with Lithuania accounting for about 32 percent of fuel imports in September and Poland for another 25 percent, followed by suppliers including Germany, Romania and Greece. 

That creates a paradox. A diesel generator can protect a hospital, water utility or heating system when the grid fails. But the........

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