Trump’s midterm reckoning: Why the Republican Party is facing a Senate wipeout 

You can tell when President Trump knows he is in trouble. Of course, he’ll never admit to making a mistake. If there is something everyone should know by now, it’s that Trump will never admit he is wrong, never admit he lost and never apologizes.

But over the past few weeks, Trump has clearly signaled he recognizes that he has not taken inflation seriously enough — the trade fight with Canada was ill-timed, to say the least — and he picked some real duds to run for Senate.

Although he deserves some credit for recognizing his errors, in marked contrast to the Biden administration’s denial and delusion, it is too late to fix his mistakes. Despite the copious copium dished out by various conservative-leaning pundits over bad polls and fake news, and what is really a favorable Senate map, Republicans are more likely than not to lose control of the Senate in addition to their majority in the House. 

A year ago, losing control of the Senate seemed rather unlikely for Republicans. The only seat in a state where Trump lost in 2024 was Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins (R) has proven to be the ultimate political survivor. At the same time, Democrats were defending seats in two states Trump won — Georgia and Michigan. Even if Trump and the Republicans faced a typical first-term downer cycle, losing the majority seemed inconceivable. 

If every Republican in every state ran 10 points behind 2024 Trump, Republicans would lose only Maine and North Carolina. That is a monumental structural advantage. Trump’s winning margin in the seats that are now viewed as competitive ranged from 11.2 percent (Ohio) to 17.9 percent (South Carolina). Yet........

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