6 governor races shift to Democrats: Election handicapper

A leading election handicapper on Thursday shifted its ratings of six gubernatorial races toward Democrats, though Republicans are well positioned to hold onto their advantage in the country’s governorships this fall. 

Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Georgia’s open governor’s seat from “leans Republican” to the “toss-up” column, while Arizona moved out of “toss-up” territory to “leans Democratic.” 

Ohio’s open gubernatorial seat also shifted from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican,” and three “likely Democratic” seats in Minnesota, New York and Rhode Island moved under the “safe” blue label.

“Despite a litany of gubernatorial rating changes today in favor of Democrats, Republicans may still break the usual pattern of midterm net gubernatorial losses for the president’s party,” Sabato’s Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman wrote in an analysis. 

“Meanwhile, Democrats have an opportunity of their own to do something they haven’t done since the 2010 election: hold a majority of the nation’s governorships. But it’s a challenging path.” 

Republicans hold 26 governorships, to Democrats’ 24 seats. Under Sabato’s current ratings, which project one Democrat-held seat in Kansas will flip, Democrats would have to defend all their other seats and flip three Republican-held slots to win control of a majority of governorships across the country.

The open seat in Georgia, vacated by term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R), is “the clearest Democratic pickup opportunity.” In Arizona, Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) is one of just two Democratic incumbents seeking reelection in states that President Trump won in 2024. 

And in Ohio, recent polling has signaled that Democrat Amy Acton is leading 2024 Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in the red state, offering a potential pickup in the race to replace term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine (R).

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