5 things to watch in Tuesday’s Texas primaries

The first major test of the 2026 midterms looms next week in Texas. 

The Lone Star State’s Senate primaries are in the national spotlight as some party leaders warn their seat in the red stronghold could flip into Democratic hands this fall.  

Across the aisle, Democrats have seen a surge of early voting turnout as the party grows bullish about making inroads up and down the ballot. 

Here’s are five things to watch in Tuesday’s contests:

What does Democratic turnout look like? 

As of Friday, Republicans had already exceeded their 2022 final tally by roughly 2,000 votes, according to VoteHub data, a signal of the surge of attention on this year’s midterm cycle. 

The numbers on the Democratic side were even stronger: The party’s ballot tally as of Friday was almost double the final count in the 2022 midterms, nearly 165,000 votes ahead of Republicans. 

A surge of Democratic turnout doesn’t guarantee a blue win: In 2008, Democrats cast more than two-thirds of primary ballots, but the Republican candidate ultimately won with 56 percent of the general election vote, according to data analyzed by KXAN.

Still, the Democratic figures stand out in a state that President Trump won by double digits in 2024 and where the GOP has dominated statewide seats for decades. 

Texas Democratic consultant Joel Montfort said the turnout “demonstrates that Democrats are motivated to vote and want change.” 

In the race for Senate, which has sucked up much of the oxygen heading into Tuesday’s elections, Democratic Texans will decide between state Rep. James Talarico and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (Texas) — whose dueling campaigns present different visions of how Democrats should craft competitive statewide campaigns. 

Does Trump make a last-minute endorsement?

Trump touched down in Corpus Christi on Friday for an event on the environment and economy, attended by all three top Republican contenders in the marquee Senate race. 

Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R), state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) were all invited, as they jostle in a competitive three-way contest for the Republican nod. 

Trump called out the candidates but didn’t endorse during the Friday event. He’d told reporters earlier this month that he was taking a “serious look” at endorsing, and he later said that he likes “all three of them, actually.”

Some say that Trump, who has long been a kingmaker in his party’s contests, could change the game if he weighs in. 

But the president had a notable flub in the state earlier this month. He endorsed the Republican candidate in a special election runoff for Texas’s Senate District 9, which favored Trump by 17 points in 2024 — but the Democratic contender overperformed, winning the seat by roughly 14 points.

Experts were divided on whether Trump could endorse before or after the Senate primary, if at all. 

Meanwhile, Trump has given his backing to a slate of other Republicans across the state. And across the aisle, former Vice President Kamala Harris waded into the Democratic primary on Friday, backing Crockett over Talarico.

Can any Republican avoid a Senate runoff? 

Cornyn was lagging behind Paxton in the polls headed into the weekend, but with Hunt snagging double-digit support, none of the contenders appeared on track to score the support they’ll need to win the primary outright and avoid a May runoff. 

But as Democrats — Talarico in particular — gain steam across the aisle, Cornyn and some national Republicans have sounded the alarm that the GOP could lose the once-safe red seat if the incumbent is ousted in the primary. 

Cornyn told Fox News this past week that either Talarico or Crockett “absolutely” has a chance of winning the red state and putting “the first crack in the red wall,” especially if Paxton, whom he has panned as too controversial, wins the nod. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) issued the same warning this week. And the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) in a recent memo cited internal polling to argue that Cornyn is “the only Republican candidate who reliably wins a general election matchup.” 

Both Paxton and Hunt have shrugged off the alarm. 

Republicans are still favored to win the seat, regardless of which candidates emerge. But, in a race that’s already setting spending records, certain match-ups may be more likely to force the GOP to pour funds into a state they’ve long counted on. 

Does big spending pay off?

The Texas Senate primaries had surpassed $122 million in ad spending and reservations as of Friday, according to data from AdImpact — the most expensive Senate primary on record. 

Pro-Cornyn ads accounted for roughly three-quarters of the $95 million spent on the GOP side, while pro-Talarico ads were 80 percent of $27 million total in Democratic spending. 

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), who is expected to easily win his primary next week as he tries for reelection as governor, has reportedly poured millions into ads that could effectively elevate Crockett in the Senate race, while alienating Republicans. 

Abbott advisers told The New York Times this week that the ads, which feature Crockett alongside prominent Democrats such as Harris and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, seek to boost GOP turnout by capitalizing on Republicans’ dislike of the polarizing congresswoman. 

Cornyn and the NRSC, too, have alluded to Crockett being an easier general election foe than her rival, Talarico. In the GOP Senate campaign arm’s recent polling, Cornyn defeated either Democrat in a head-to-head match-up, while Paxton defeated Crockett by 1 point and lost to Talarico. 

How do Black and Latino Texans vote? 

Republicans have signaled concern over their support among Hispanic voters across the country, including in Texas. 

The once-reliably blue voting bloc shifted toward Trump in 2024, and they could prove pivotal if Democrats can reverse those gains in the midterms.

According to VoteHub data analysis earlier this month, 79 percent of Hispanic voters backed the Democrat in the state Senate District 9 special election this month.  

Both Democratic Senate candidates have openly courted voters of color. 

Polls show Crockett with a big advantage among Black voters in the primary, and VoteHub data suggests the bloc is “turning out in healthy numbers” in early voting. 

Across the country, both Black and Latino voters turned to Trump largely because of economic concerns, Marquette University pollster Charles Franklin told The Hill. 

“Now … these groups are still most concerned about inflation and the cost of living, and now they’re blaming the current administration,” he said. “That helped Trump in ’24 and it’s likely to hurt Republicans in the midterms now.”

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