Where things stand in Texas ahead of the primary

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▪ Texas primaries in home-stretch

▪ Bill Clinton sets precedent with testimony

▪ Netflix out, paving Paramount takeover of WBD

▪ Pentagon’s war of words against Anthropic

President Trump heads to Texas today amid final campaigning in two of the country’s most closely watched electoral contests before midterm primaries in the Lone Star State next week.

Texas’s elections kick off a series of primaries throughout the country over the next six months, and the marquee Senate battle is capturing the political spotlight.

The race has already set a record as the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history, with $110 million spent in campaign advertising. Most of that spending has been on the GOP side.

Polling shows a close race among the three Republican candidates, with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a slight lead in the Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) polling average, an advantage he’s held for months over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R). Paxton is narrowly ahead in the average with 36.5 percent support, closely followed by Cornyn with 32.2 percent and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R) in third with 18 percent.

On the Democratic side, state Rep. James Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett are neck and neck in the DDHQ polling average, with 44.4 percent support for Talarico to Crockett’s 44.1 percent.

But polling has been much more limited than on the Republican side. A few of the polls have also been affiliated with a campaign or its supporters, including a few showing Talarico ahead, and are viewed with some skepticism as to their reliability.

Cornyn is locked in the race of his political life as he tries to fend off primary challenges from Paxton and Hunt. Both have sought to brand the GOP senator as a “RINO,” or Republican in name only, and as insufficiently supportive of the president, while Cornyn has pushed back in stressing his conservative bona fides.

Although Cornyn has been an institution unto himself in Texas politics, having served in his Senate seat for more than two decades, he faces a significant uphill battle to clinching renomination.

Texas election law requires a candidate to receive a majority of the vote to win a primary outright, so the top two candidates appear almost certain to advance to a runoff in May.

The race has gotten increasingly intense as the primary approaches, though Cornyn and Paxton are longtime rivals and have been trading barbs with each other for months.

Cornyn has attacked Paxton for various controversies concerning both his public and private life, including an indictment on security fraud charges he faced and an unsuccessful impeachment effort over accusations of bribery. The indictment was dismissed after he reached a deal with prosecutors to pay restitution.

Paxton has hit back at Cornyn for a few instances in which the senator broke with his party, including when he supported former President Biden’s bipartisan gun safety law passed after the Uvalde, Texas, shooting, and he accused him of being disloyal to Trump.

But Cornyn’s campaign escalated its offensive on Paxton to a new level this week in slamming him over an alleged extramarital affair. Paxton and his wife are currently in the process of getting a divorce.

“Unlike John Cornyn, who’s become a desperate shell of a man clinging to power, my campaign is not about attacking someone else’s family,” Paxton said in a post on the social platform X, including a new ad of his own featuring his daughter praising him and his values.

The remaining X factor in the race is whether the president will weigh in to give what would likely be a highly influential endorsement to any candidate. He’s previously praised all three candidates but hasn’t revealed any preference.

Trump’s visit to Corpus Christi, Texas, today is on official business, but political observers will be watching for any hint of whom he may be supporting next week, The Hill’s Julia Mueller and Julia Manchester report.

▪ Politico: Republicans freaking out over Texas race.

Meanwhile, Crockett and Talarico, who are both seen as rising stars within the Democratic Party, are battling for the chance to pull off what would be a major upset in the general election.

Texas has consistently voted Republican for years on the federal and state level, but both candidates have expressed optimism about the chances of flipping it blue, though they’d have different approaches in doing so.

Crockett has gained national attention for her strong pushback against Trump and his Republican allies, sometimes using catchy phrases that go viral online. One of the most prominent instances came in 2024 during a faceoff with former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).

Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, has taken a different approach, seeking to present a more conciliatory message to those who may have voted for Trump and other Republicans in the past.

The race became heated earlier this month over comments Talarico allegedly made about Crockett and former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Polls have shown a tight race, with Crockett leading in a few of the most recent public, independent polls.

One important factor will be how much Talarico’s appearance on Stephen Colbert’s “Late Show” and the controversy surrounding the decision not to air it on television will affect the race.

Talarico saw a significant fundraising boost following the interview, which aired on YouTube, and polling since then has been limited.

With only two major candidates in the Democratic race, one is likely to get more than 50 percent support and clinch the nomination, preventing a runoff.

Both candidates have argued their approach is the right one to give Democrats a fighting chance in Texas. The time to choose one of two significantly diverging paths arrives Tuesday.

▪ The Hill: Cardi B tells followers to support Crockett.

Smart Take with Blake Burman

In a surprise to reporters in Chappaqua, N.Y., last night, Hillary Clinton spoke after her deposition with the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee and even took reporters’ questions. Clinton maintained she “did not know Jeffrey Epstein” and criticized the committee for asking about other issues, including UFOs. I asked Richard Goodstein, a former Clinton adviser, what he thinks former President Clinton might say today. 

“Look, Epstein was a donor to Democratic causes, so he ended up, you’d see pictures of him in the White House when Clinton was there. I had pictures like that too. And then he took Epstein’s plane on these foundation missions. That’s what he’s going to say,” Goodstein told me.

After months of negotiations, the Clintons called for their testimony to be public. Given we saw Hillary Clinton go before reporters, you’d have to imagine the former president follows suit. No matter what happens today, the videos of the depositions are expected in the coming days.

Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6p/5c on NewsNation.

3 Things to Know Today

Paramount has won the battle to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery after Netflix said it wouldn’t match the company’s bid. The merger now will need approval from the Department of Justice to go through.

At least two individuals involved in the shooting with Cuban forces on Wednesday were U.S. citizens, a U.S. official told The Hill’s sister network NewsNation. One individual died, while the other was injured.

Pakistan has declared “open war” on Afghanistan after the Pakistani defense minister said patience has “run out” on repeated attacks by Afghan forces and the Pakistani Taliban. Pakistan launched a series of airstrikes in various regions of Afghanistan in response.

SETTING PRECEDENT: House Democrats are eyeing precedent being set Friday when former President Clinton testifies in the Oversight and Government Reform Committee’s investigation into Jeffrey Epstein.

While it’s unclear how much Clinton will have to say about the investigation itself, Democrats have not hidden the fact they believe receiving testimony from a former president will help pave the path to eventually bring Trump before Congress, especially under a future Democratic House majority.

Democrats aren’t wasting any time in making the argument.

“This committee has now set a new precedent about talking to presidents and former presidents,” Rep. Robert Garcia (Calif.), the top Democrat on the Oversight panel, told reporters Thursday. “We’re demanding immediately that we ask President Trump to testify in front of our committee and be deposed in front of Oversight Republicans and Democrats.”

Trump was subpoenaed in the investigation of the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, but the subpoena was later withdrawn. Democrats, many of whom supported requiring Clinton to testify, hope Friday’s testimony will help compel Trump to testify in future investigations whenever Democrats retake the House and get subpoena power again.

A former president testifying before Congress is not entirely unprecedented, but is extremely rare. The last president to do so was Gerald Ford, who appeared for the noncontroversial topic of celebrating the bicentennial of the Constitution in the 1980s.

Clinton’s agreement to sit for a deposition came after an extensive back-and-forth that he and his wife, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, had with committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.).

Although the Clintons said they didn’t have any additional information to share relevant to the panel’s investigation, Comer and the committee went forward with a threat to hold them in contempt to compel their testimony.

After it became clear that the full House was likely to pass the contempt resolutions, the Clintons reversed course and agreed.

Though Bill Clinton’s name has appeared in some documents from the Epstein files, he hasn’t been accused of any wrongdoing.

Hillary Clinton said during her testimony before the committee Thursday that she had no information to share about the criminal activities of Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell and doesn’t remember ever meeting Epstein.

Meanwhile, Republican senators are pressuring the Department of Justice (DOJ) to release all the files related to Epstein following multiple reports that some documents have remained concealed, The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports. This is despite top DOJ leaders saying last month that they released all documents required under the law.

The documents seemingly include FBI interviews with a woman who accused Trump of sexually assaulting her decades ago.

▪ The Hill: The new Epstein files controversy, explained.

▪ The Hill: Comer says Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick may be called to testify.

▪ The New York Times: World Economic Forum head steps down over Epstein ties.

▪ The New York Times: Cooperating witnesses exposed in Epstein files.

ANOTHER DRONE SHOT DOWN: The U.S. military has shot down a Customs and Border Protection drone with a laser in Texas, causing the closure of airspace near the U.S.-Mexico border.

This is second such incident involving a laser fired in Texas that prompted the closure of nearby airspace after an instance earlier this month in which the air traffic from the El Paso airport was briefly shut down for a few hours.

PROGRESS MADE? Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi said U.S. and Iranian officials made “significant progress” in their talks to avoid a military conflict and reach a deal on Iran’s nuclear program.

The officials met Thursday for the most recent round of discussions in Geneva, Switzerland, as the Trump administration considers the possibility of a strike on Iran if diplomacy fails. Oman has served as a mediator in the talks.

Al-Busaidi said both sides will consult with their respective capitals, but technical discussions are expected to continue next week in Vienna. Trump has said he would prefer a diplomatic solution while refusing to take the possibility of a military strike off the table.

House Democrats will force a vote next week to curb Trump’s authority to attack Iran without congressional authorization. But the resolution is expected to fail in the face of widespread opposition from most Republicans and a handful of Democrats.

▪ The Hill: Senate GOP leader says any strike on Iran should cause regime change.

WALTZ ON: A federal judge declined to pause the president’s construction of a ballroom in the East Wing of the White House, ruling against preservationists who sued to block it, at least for now.

U.S. District Judge Richard Leon ruled against the National Trust for Historic Preservation on the grounds that it didn’t properly challenge the $400 million project, but he said he would reevaluate if the organization amended its complaint.

The trust and the government originally focused on Trump’s authority to tear down the East Wing and construct a new one, but Leon ruled the preservationists failed to bring the proper claim to test Trump’s authority to proceed without congressional approval.

“To be fair, the President’s source of legal authority to construct the ballroom was not apparent before the National Trust brought its motion,” Leon wrote.

Trump praised the ruling in a post on Truth Social, calling it “great news” for the country and White House.

▪ The Hill: Admin asks court to end temporary protections for Syrians.

MORTGAGE RATE DROP: Mortgage rates fell below 6 percent for the first time in more than three years, giving homebuyers a key opening.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.98 percent on Thursday, a drop of 0.03 points from last week, according to Freddie Mac. The development comes as inflation also fell to 2.4 percent last month, slightly lower than economists were expecting.

Trump touted falling mortgage rates in his State of the Union address Tuesday.

Housing sales remained at a 30-year low last year, continuing a steady annual decline dating back to 2022.

▪ The New York Times: Housing market tilting back toward buyers.

The president will travel to Corpus Cristi, Texas, where he will receive an energy briefing at 4:05 p.m. and deliver remarks on energy at 4:35 p.m. He will participate in a local TV interview later and then depart to go to Palm Beach, Fla. for the weekend.

The House and Senate won’t meet today.

‘GOD COMPLEX’: A top Pentagon official lashed out at Anthropic on Thursday night after the company rejected an ultimatum from officials to agree to terms on the use of its AI model, Claude.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave a deadline of Friday afternoon for Anthropic to agree to the department’s terms or risk a $200 million contract being canceled. But Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said the company wouldn’t agree and hopes the Pentagon changes its position.

The company and the Pentagon have been engaged in a standoff over the use of Claude. The firm’s policy prohibits the usage of Claude for mass surveillance or to develop weapons that can be used without human oversight. 

But the Pentagon has insisted that Anthropic agree to the terms, which would allow the Pentagon to use the firm’s AI models for “all lawful uses.”

Following Amodei’s announcement, Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering Emil Michael slammed the tech CEO as a “liar” with a “God-complex.”

“He wants nothing more than to try to personally control the US Military and is ok putting our nation’s safety at risk,” he said in a post on X. “The @DeptofWar will ALWAYS adhere to the law but not bend to whims of any one for-profit tech company.”

“Not hard to believe that ⁦@AnthropicAI⁩ dropped their own safety policy but thinks they should dictate ours,” he said in another post, linking to a story about Anthropic removing a central safety pledge.

The Pentagon warned Anthropic on Tuesday that it could invoke the Defense Production Act (DPA), which gives the president widespread authority to control domestic industries for national defense.

Experts told The Hill’s Julia Shapero and Filip Timotija that invoking the DPA on Anthropic would be unusual and isn’t what the law was intended for.

▪ The Hill: Pentagon removes director of Joint Staff.

▪ The Hill: Instagram launches new child safety tool.

STUDENT RELEASED: A Columbia University student has been released after being detained by federal agents who entered a residential building under false pretenses.

Columbia said Thursday that federal immigration authorities detained the student, identified as senior Ellie Aghayeva, after misrepresenting their purpose for entering the building.

“Our understanding at this time is that the federal agents made misrepresentations to gain entry to the building to search for a ‘missing person,’” acting university President Claire Shipman said in a statement.

Aghayeva later posted on her Instagram story that the Department of Homeland Security “illegally arrested me” and asked for help.

But Aghayeva was let go after New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D) expressed concerns to Trump during a meeting, and the president said she would be released “imminently.”

Columbia said it doesn’t allow federal agents into nonpublic buildings without a warrant.

While the situation has seemingly been defused, it’s the latest incident in a series of controversial arrests at academic institutions, including the detainment of Columbia graduate Mahmoud Khalil last year.

▪ The Hill: High school walkouts over immigration enforcement stir debates.

OLYMPIC CONTROVERSY: A joke by the president to the U.S. men’s Olympic hockey team is sparking pushback online and from at least one player of the women’s team.

Trump called the men’s team after they won the gold medal at the games last weekend, inviting them to the White House. He said he would have to invite the women’s team, which also won gold, as well and would be impeached if he didn’t do so, eliciting laughter from the men’s team.

Hilary Knight, the captain of the women’s team, told reporters she thought the joke was “distasteful and unfortunate.” She said it shouldn’t overshadow the team’s accomplishments.

Meanwhile, another controversy is brewing, concerning a doctored TikTok video shared by the White House that made it seem like men’s hockey player Brady Tkachuk was disparaging Canadians after winning the gold medal. Tkachuk pushed back, saying he wouldn’t say what the video portrayed him saying.

Americans don’t need announcements, they need lower drug prices, Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) writes in The Hill.

Orban and Fico: Putin’s NATO pawns, Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet write in The Hill.

And finally … 👏👏👏 Congrats to this week’s Morning Report quiz winners! They knew their stuff about the history of the president’s annual speech to Congress.

Here’s who went 4/4: Richard Baznik, Stan Wasser, Michael Salanik, Chuck Schoenenberger, Melissa McBurney, Rick Schmidtke, Carmine Petracca, Jess Elger, Pam Manges, Linda L. Field, William Chittam, Jenessa Wagner, Luther Berg, Ned Sauthoff, William Moore, John Ciorciari, Robert Bradley, Mark R. Williamson, Sari Wisch, Steve James and Savannah Petracca.

Woodrow Wilson restored the custom of the president delivering the State of the Union speech in person before Congress when he took office in 1913. Every president has delivered an in-person address since then.

Trump surpassed the previous record held by Bill Clinton, who spoke for about one hour and 29 minutes in his 2000 address. Trump also surpassed his own record from last year for longest congressional address, which was about 100 minutes. The first address by the president to Congress technically isn’t considered a State of the Union.

Ronald Reagan was the only president listed who never gave a response to a State of the Union. Gerald Ford, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Joe Biden all gave a response before eventually becoming president and giving the address themselves.

The secretary of Interior has most commonly been the designated survivor at seven times. The secretaries of Veterans Affairs and Agriculture are tied for second with six times each.

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