The Hill’s election night cheat sheet

▪ What to know as polls close

▪ Trump gives final pitch

▪ What’s next for Haley Stevens?

▪ Will Iran strikes resume?

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After a long, tense and sometimes drama-filled campaign cycle, Election Day is finally here.

What are the pivotal races? When will we know the outcomes? How much sleep do you need to function on Wednesday? We’ll answer these questions and more in our election night cheat sheet, with some help from our friends at Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).

What’s on the line tonight? Just the course of President Trump‘s final two years in office and the future of both parties.

Once polls close, starting at 6 p.m. EST, results will start coming in rapid-fire moving west. If there’s a “blue tsunami,” as some are predicting, we could know the result within hours. If it’s closer than polls predict, it could take days.

Here’s what to keep an eye on as polls close and returns come in.

Early House bellwethers to watch

Democrats are overwhelming favorites to win control of the House. The forecast from DDHQ has ticked up even more in the cycle’s final days, reaching 84 percent ahead of Election Day.

Some of the earliest polls to close will give a hint of whether a Democratic wave will turn into a tsunami or a ripple.

One of the first places to watch, right as the first polls close at 6 p.m., is Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District. Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) is vacating the seat to run for governor, and Democrats have expressed some hope that the district could be in play.

Democrats don’t need to win the seat to signal a good night for them. But if Democrat Zach Dembo can stay competitive, that could be a good sign for his party.

In Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, Rep. Victoria Spartz (R) is expected to hang on, but a strong Democratic performance in the Indianapolis suburbs could be telling.

When 7 p.m. rolls around, all eyes will be on Florida’s 14th and 25th districts, which are prime pickup targets for Republicans after the state’s mid-decade redistricting left Democratic Reps. Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz with tougher fights. Flipping either seat would be a sign that Republicans are holding their own.

In Virginia, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) is a key target for Democrats, and her fate could signal the direction of the rest of the night.

Which state will decide the Senate?

Democrats are favored to win Senate majority, but barely. Each state’s vote-counting procedures will play a key role in how the night develops.

Democrats’ most-likely pickup seems to be North Carolina, a state that is known to count votes fast. Results from Georgia and Florida will also likely come earlier in the night. A Democratic win in Florida would be bad news for Republicans nationwide.

If Democrats flip North Carolina and oust Sen. Susan Collins (R) in Maine — a state former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024 — attention will likely quickly shift to Ohio and Texas. But Texas’s slow-counting Harris County could delay a race call if the contest is razor-tight.

Based on DDHQ’s forecast, Ohio may end up being the clincher. All other things equal, the odds of Senate control swing hard toward whichever party wins the Buckeye State — and it may signal the political winds in Iowa and Kansas too.

Democrats are favored to win 51 seats, including Alaska, where the last polls won’t close until 1 a.m. EST. If Ohio or another tossup state flips before then, Senate control could be decided before the Last Frontier declares a winner.

What will we know before we go to bed?

It depends on two key factors: when you go to sleep and how close key races are. If Democrats pull off big wins, control of both chambers could be called before midnight eastern.

The House is considerably more likely to be clear sooner than the Senate, as Democrats only need to net a few seats to win a majority in the lower chamber.

If the main battlegrounds are close, this could drag into Wednesday. Texas and Michigan could still be counting ballots well into the night, and if no candidate wins a majority in the first round of ranked choice voting in Maine and Alaska, it could be weeks before we have a winner.

Vote counting in........

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