GOP mulls reconciliation push in hunt for midterm win

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▪ GOP looks for midterm win

▪ Senate poised to pass housing bill

▪ High gas prices likely to stick around

▪ Oklahoma Senate battle underway

Republican members of Congress are turning their attention back to the reconciliation process as they try to advance one more major piece of legislation before the November midterm elections.

The GOP already scored the most significant legislative victory of President Trump’s second term last year in passing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a major tax cut and spending law. But Trump used his State of the Union address last month to call on congressional Republicans to take more action.

The possibility of using reconciliation, through which bills can pass the Senate by a simple majority rather than the typically required 60 votes, was a key point of discussion throughout the House GOP’s three-day issues conference this week.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told reporters during a press conference that he’s been a “champion for reconciliation as one of the important tools in the toolbox.”

“I think we can come together and envision a Venn diagram as I do — what are those handful of issues that are in the center of those concentric circles that is something that every Republican can agree on, that is great things for the country,” he said.

The president’s focus has chiefly been on the SAVE America Act, a voting-requirements bill under which people would need to provide proof of citizenship before registering to vote and present an ID before casting a ballot.

But that legislation, which has already passed the House, appears unlikely to advance in the Senate, with Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) insisting there aren’t enough votes to change filibuster rules to let Republicans move it forward, despite pressure from the president.

That could turn more attention to alternate legislation designed to boost the GOP’s economic messaging ahead of the midterms.

The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports soft job numbers, stubborn inflation and rising gas prices, spurred on by the Iran conflict, are worrying Republicans about an impending electoral backlash in November.

Republicans have been looking for ways to show they are delivering for the American people, especially with Trump’s economic approval rating underwater.

Reconciliation may be the best way to do that. But accomplishing it won’t be easy, even though the process would allow a bill to advance with only GOP support.

The razor-thin Republican House majority is one major obstacle, as the party currently can only afford to lose one vote and still pass legislation.

The Hill’s Sudiksha Kochi reports fractures within the party are adding to the difficulty, with fiscal hawks advocating for spending cuts, not new spending.

Johnson has also floated using reconciliation to target what he said is waste, fraud and abuse in Democratic-led states.

Whether any of these ideas can get across the finish line is up in the air, but Republicans are eager to do something legislatively as the Iran offensive has overshadowed much of the conversation in Washington.

A source familiar with the conversation at the House GOP retreat told NewsNation’s Jackie Koppell that leaders discussed adding military funding for the Iran offensive to a potential second reconciliation bill. But one complicating factor is significant spending cuts that would need to offset the cost, the source said.

Congress is up against the clock to take any action, with the legislative calendar quickly diminishing before lawmakers squarely focus on campaigning back home.

▪ Washington Examiner: Johnson pushes reconciliation with Trump focus elsewhere.

▪ The Hill: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) denies flipping on filibuster for Trump support.

SENATE VOTING ON HOUSING BILL: Lawmakers from both parties appear set to notch a bipartisan win as the Senate is expected to pass a bipartisan housing bill later this morning.

The bill would approve incentives to build new homes, launch a program allowing abandoned buildings to become housing development and allow new grants to overhaul homes, among other initiatives.

The legislation would be the first major housing bill passed in nearly three decades, bringing together priorities from both the House and the Senate and giving both parties an accomplishment.

But questions remain as to whether it can get enough support to pass in the House, as House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said changes need to be made to it.

The White House has declared its support for the legislation, but the bill seems to be lower on the president’s priority list, especially compared to the SAVE America Act. That was on display during Trump’s comments to House Republicans at their retreat this week.

“The people are demanding it. Every time I go out, save America! Save America! We want the SAVE America Act! That’s all they talk about. They don’t talk about housing. They don’t talk about anything. That’s what they talk about,” Trump said earlier this week.

While the housing bill may in theory present an easier legislative win than any future reconciliation bill, it’s unclear how far many Republicans plan to lean into the topic on the campaign trail.

Smart Take with Blake Burman

Oil markets continued their volatile swings Wednesday. Crude oil prices rose 4 percent to roughly $91, and that’s despite the news that nations across the globe committed to releasing 400 million barrels of oil, the largest release ever of its kind.

I asked Kevin Book, the managing director of Clearview Energy Partners, what that could mean for drivers all across the country. 

“The supply that will go out will probably go out in April, at least start to, and continue for months,” Book told me.

“It wouldn’t necessarily take the edge off prices today, or even the near term, but it probably would keep them from rising higher if this conflict goes on, and maybe not stop them from rising, but maybe stop them from rising as much,” he added.

The U.S. has roughly 415 million barrels of oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced 172 million barrels will be drawn from the reserve in the next four months. That means the U.S. will have about 243 million barrels in the reserve, roughly a third of its total capacity. Wright said approximately 200 million barrels will be replaced within the next year and at “no cost to the taxpayer.”

We’ll have to see the details, but expect this to be an issue that soon gets the attention of Congress.

Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6p/5c on NewsNation.

3 Things to Know Today

The Pentagon has estimated the first six days of the offensive against Iran cost $11.3 billion.

Republicans blocked an effort from Democrats to fund all agencies under the Department of Homeland Security except for those related to immigration enforcement. Democrats are holding their ground despite GOP pressure to end the department’s shutdown.

The president was responsible for the Department of Justice’s surprise reversal in continuing its push against certain law firms that have stoked Trump’s ire, The Wall Street Journal reports. The department signaled it wouldn’t defend Trump’s executive orders seeking to punish the firms before quickly changing course last week.

HERE TO STAY: Americans might have to face higher prices at the gas pump for the time being despite moves to check the soaring cost of oil.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), a coalition made up of 32 member countries, announced Wednesday it would release 400 million barrels of oil reserves to try to alleviate price hikes caused by the conflict in Iran. That’s the largest-ever release of the IEA’s stockpiles in its history.

The move comes after the cost of crude oil reached its highest point in four years earlier this week, jumping to more than $100 per barrel. It dropped somewhat soon after, but it surged back above $100 per barrel overnight despite the news of the IEA’s release.

The U.S. and international community have been seeking to respond to Iran’s move to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping lane, in response to the strikes. Tehran has also reportedly begun placing mines in the area to ward off ships attempting to pass through.

The Energy Department revealed Wednesday the U.S. plans to release 172 million barrels of oil as part of the IEA’s overall output starting next week.

Although the release of oil reserves is designed to cool off costs, past instances of the IEA releasing reserves have had mixed results. And Iran is warning that high prices are here to stay.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the world should expect the cost of oil to reach $200 per barrel because the price depends on “regional stability,” which has been disrupted.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), a close ally of the president, said gas prices will likely stay above prior levels as long as the conflict persists. Trump has said he expects the increase will be a “short-term” effect and that Americans will accept the brief spike for the greater goal of opposing Iran.

Other Republicans have expressed concern that rising prices could hurt the GOP at the ballot box as the midterms approach.

▪ The Hill: Former senator says farmers are feeling higher prices.

▪ The Hill: Senate Dems push for probe into moves to ease Russian oil sanctions.

TRUMP RALLY: The president held his first campaign-style rally since the outbreak of the U.S. strikes against Iran on Wednesday, promoting what he called an “excursion.”

“We did an excursion. You know what an excursion is? We had to take a little trip to get rid of some evil, very evil people,” Trump said in Hebron, Ky.

He praised the U.S. military as the “best in the world by far,” adding that he didn’t know “we’re going to have to be showing it off so much.”

Trump concentrated his attention on Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), a top foe who has repeatedly clashed with the president and represents the area of Kentucky where the president traveled Wednesday.

“He is the worst person. … How the hell did he ever end up in Kentucky? His name is Thomas Massie,” Trump said to boos in the crowd for Massie.

Trump has endorsed former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein in the primary to oust Massie.

“Ed Gallrein has my complete and total endorsement. He’s a true American hero and he’s a great patriot,” he said. “He’s doing it because he saw what [Massie] was doing to our country.”

INVESTIGATION REQUEST: A bipartisan group of senators is requesting the Government Accountability Office (GAO) open an investigation into the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) handling of the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files.

The lawmakers argue in a letter sent to the GAO that the DOJ has failed to comply with the requirements of the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which mandated that the federal government release its files on the disgraced financier with limited exceptions. But they pointed to the many redactions in the millions of files released.

The DOJ declared its review of the Epstein files was complete last month, but critics have pointed to apparent missing information. One of the most high-profile instances were files containing records of interviews the FBI conducted with a woman who made claims against Trump and Epstein.

Meanwhile, the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee is moving forward with its investigation into Epstein, awaiting a formal response from Attorney General Pam Bondi to the subpoena it sent her last week for testimony. If she testifies, she will become the highest-ranking Trump official yet to appear before the panel in its investigation.

▪ BBC: Keir Starmer was warned of risk of Peter Mandelson appointment.

▪ The Hill: Trump-Epstein ‘Titanic’ statue appears on National Mall.

ATTORNEY TO CANDIDATE: A former DOJ attorney who received attention for complaining about an overwhelming caseload from the administration’s immigration enforcement operations launched a bid for Congress on Wednesday.

Julie Le was removed from her post last month after telling a federal judge “this job sucks.” Now, she’s launched a primary challenge opposing Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), saying she would be a more moderate lawmaker than the incumbent.

Le’s campaign website states her three main priorities would be immigration reform, education funding and healthcare access. Le will face Omar in the August primary in a strongly Democratic-leaning district.

RACE IS ON: Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) officially threw his hat in the ring for Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s (R-Okla.) Senate seat, putting a high-profile name in the mix.

Mullin, whose seat was already up for election this year, currently appears to be on track for confirmation as secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), with most Republicans rallying behind him to replace Kristi Noem.

Mullin is scheduled to appear before the Senate for a confirmation hearing next Wednesday, as Trump looks for him to take over DHS by the end of the month.

If he is confirmed, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) will be responsible for appointing an interim replacement who cannot run for the remainder of the term under state law. Stitt, who chairs the National Governors Association, is expected to meet with Trump at the White House today, Politico reported. 

Hern said he chose to run because “the American Dream is under threat by the radical left and RINO Republicans who oppose President Trump’s America-first agenda and want to turn the United States into a third-world country.”

Oklahoma strategists told The Hill they view Hern as the likely front-runner, though other potential contenders such as Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.) are also considering their own bids.

▪ The Hill: Mullin departure creates ‘House whisperer’ vacancy.

▪ The Hill: The GOP horse race for Trump’s favor.

‘COURSE CORRECTION’: The House speaker acknowledged a potential vulnerability for the GOP on immigration going into the midterms, suggesting the party take a different approach.

Johnson said in an interview during the House Republican retreat that the party has a “little hiccup” with some Hispanic and Latino voters in particular because of immigration enforcement actions viewed as “overzealous,” The New York Times reported.

“And, you know, everybody can describe it differently. But here’s the good news: We’re in a course correction mode right now,” Johnson said, pointing to expected new leadership for DHS with Mullin nominated to replace Noem.

Republicans’ strength on immigration has shifted to a vulnerability in recent months amid widespread backlash to the administration’s policies, particularly over the deaths of two U.S. citizens at the hands of federal immigration agents in Minnesota.

Johnson’s comments came hours after top Republican officials advised lawmakers to avoid discussing “mass deportations” of undocumented immigrants on the campaign trail, the Times reported.

CONFIRMATION: The Senate overwhelmingly voted to confirm Gen. Joshua Rudd as the director of the National Security Agency (NSA) and U.S. Cyber Command, filling a vacancy that has been in place for nearly a year.

Rudd was confirmed Wednesday in a 71-29 vote. He has already been serving as the deputy director of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.

The NSA has been without a permanent head since last April, when Trump fired the past director, retired Gen. Timothy Haugh, and his civilian deputy, Wendy Noble. The firings came after Trump met with conservative activist Laura Loomer, who argued some people on the White House National Security Council were not sufficiently loyal to Trump’s agenda.

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) has objected to Rudd’s nomination, arguing he isn’t qualified for the role, but lawmakers were able to overcome his objection.

▪ The Hill: Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) pushes for end to Federal Reserve probe.

The president will participate in executive time at 8 a.m. He will receive an intelligence briefing at 10 a.m. He will participate in policy meetings at 1:30 p.m. and 3:15 p.m. He and first lady Melania Trump will participate in a Women’s History Month event at 4 p.m.

The Senate will meet at 10 a.m.

The House will convene at 9:30 a.m. for a pro forma session.

Friday: Join Whole Hog Politics author Chris Stirewalt and The Hill’s SVP of Editorial Content Bill Sammon at 9 a.m. EDT for their live virtual episode of Whole Hog Politics. Sign up to join.

TOUGH CONVERSATIONS: Parents and teachers are facing a difficult task in deciding how to handle discussions on the situation in Iran with their children and students, as disturbing and tragic images surface online.

The Hill’s Lexi Lonas Cochran reports experts said they need to strike a difficult balance between not shying away from the conversations but also keeping the discussions age appropriate.

Information about the conflict has dominated social media and news headlines over the past week and a half, including from the Trump administration, which has touted its efforts against Tehran. Along with the real information online, AI-generated fake images and videos have also been common, making it difficult for adults as well as children to tell truth from fiction.

Lonas Cochran notes parents have less time than before to make a plan in the age of the internet, particularly for older students who may quickly consume misinformation. But experts told her adults should try to keep their own feelings in check and stick to just the facts with children.

“I would say starting with a listening mindset and letting the conversation go from there,” said Scott Woitaszewski, chair of the school safety and crisis response committee for the National Association of School Psychologists.

▪ The Hill: Blue states sue over college race-based reporting requirements.

HISTORIC CHANGE: The seven-century-old custom of hereditary accession to the British House of Lords is set to come to an end after the U.K. Parliament voted to remove hereditary aristocrats from the body.

Members of the upper chamber dropped their objections to legislation passed by the House of Commons ousting dozens of dukes, earls and viscounts who inherited their seats in the House of Lords, The Associated Press reported.

The upper chamber of the British Parliament was composed of noblemen who inherited their seats for most of its history. “Life peers,” who are retired politicians, civic leaders and other notables appointed by the government, joined them in the 1950s, and they now make up the overwhelming majority of the body.

The House of Lords play a key role in the U.K.’s parliamentary democracy, as it scrutinizes legislation passed by the House of Commons. But critics have argued it’s undemocratic.

“Our parliament should always be a place where talents are recognized and merit counts,” government minister Nick Thomas-Symonds said. “It should never be a gallery of old boys’ networks, nor a place where titles, many of which were handed out centuries ago, hold power over the will of the people.”

The upper chamber has more than 800 members, making it the second-largest legislative chamber in the world after China’s National People’s Congress.

▪ The Associated Press: South Africa summons new U.S. ambassador.

In Texas, Democrats discover the power of the ‘nice guy’ candidate, Max Burns writes in The Hill.

What is the definition of victory in Iran? There are three, Marc A. Thiessen writes in The Washington Post.

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for the weekly news quiz!

The offensive in Iran is about to reach the end of its second week without a clear end in sight, so this quiz will test your knowledge on the history of the country and its relationship with the U.S.

Be sure to email your responses to jgans@thehill.com — please add “Quiz” to your subject line. Winners who submit correct answers will receive deserved newsletter fame on Friday.

What year did the Iranian Revolution occur, bringing Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to power?

A stark moment in U.S. history for those alive at the time was the Iranian hostage crisis, when 52 Americans were taken from the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. For how many days were they held?

Iran is considered one of the oldest civilizations in the world, dating back thousands of years. At its peak, what percentage of the global population lived in the Persian Empire?

Last year, an interview between conservative commentator Tucker Carlson and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) went viral when Carlson challenged Cruz on the population of Iran. What is roughly the current estimated population of Iran?

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