Five redrawn House districts to watch one week out

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Democrats are overwhelming favorites to win back control of the House next week. Less certain is whether a Republican redraw of congressional districts in some states will curb the Democratic margin.

The national redistricting battle that began last year appeared to position the GOP to pick up seats in more than half a dozen states. But the political environment has changed since then, and seats that seemed to be almost automatic flips for Republicans now are at least competitive or even leaning toward Democrats.

How these races play out on election night could be telling for how the rest of the evening will play out nationwide. Here’s five redrawn districts to keep an eye on:

Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District

Rep. Shomari Figures (D) seemed almost certain to see his congressional career end after courts allowed Alabama to go forward with a new map. His 2nd District was molded to no longer include certain key majority Black areas.

He’s still facing an uphill battle against GOP state Rep. Rhett Marques, but it’s a fight. Multiple election forecasters rate the race as “lean Republican,” and a few polls have shown the race neck and neck.

Those polls were mostly sponsored by Democrats, raising some doubts about how much to read into them. Of all Democratic incumbents seeking reelection, Figures is probably facing the biggest hurdle.

If he loses, it’ll just be an indication that the expected enthusiasm advantage for Democrats wasn’t enough to beat the odds in red districts. If this race stays blue, Democrats could be in for a big night.

Florida’s 9th Congressional District

After Figures, the incumbent Democrat facing the next biggest challenge is likely Rep. Darren Soto, who faces military veteran Dan Green.

Other Democrats such as Reps. Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz are running in districts that are somewhat more conservative than they’ve previously experienced but are still considered to have at least a coin flip’s chance at winning.

Soto’s district was moved much more significantly to the right and would have voted for President Trump by 17 points in 2024. If Soto is able to win in the majority-Hispanic district, it’ll likely be thanks to a surge of Hispanic voters breaking with the GOP after having backed Trump.

Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) and Cook Political Report split on who is more likely to hang on between Figures and Soto.

DDHQ gives Soto a nearly 40 percent chance of winning and Figures only a 25 percent chance. Cook Political Report acknowledges Soto outran former Vice President Kamala Harris by 9 points but rates the race “likely Republican.”

North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District

North Carolina’s redistricting focused on a single district the GOP has failed to flip before, and it’s anyone’s race.

Democratic Rep. Don Davis is facing Republican Laurie Buckhout in a rematch of their contest from two years ago, when Davis won by less than 2 points.

The election is one of the most expensive House races in the country, and Republicans are hoping to finally pick off Davis. But DDHQ lists Davis as the favorite. And Cook Political Report notes in its analysis that the “wide” enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans this year gives Davis a good shot at winning.

Ohio’s 9th Congressional District

The Buckeye State is a bit of a unique case in that state lawmakers were required to redraw the state’s districts, and Democrats and Republicans reached a deal on the new map that only narrowly shifted two districts to the right.

Rep. Greg Landsman (D) is favored to win in Ohio’s 1st district, but Democrats are hoping to hold onto the other district impacted as well.

Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur is running in her most challenging race of her 40-year career in a district that would have voted for Trump by 11 points. She’s been a target of the GOP for the past few cycles, including two years ago when she only won reelection by less than 1 point. She’s facing Republican Derek Merrin in a rematch of the 2024 contest.

Kaptur has significantly outraised and outspent Merrin, and DDHQ gives her a 72 percent chance of winning.

Texas’s 35th Congressional District

The Lone Star State kicked off the redistricting war when it redrew its map to help Republicans pick up five additional seats........

© The Hill