What is the economy telling us about the midterms?

Reading the economy’s signals can often be bewildering, especially in an election year. Consumer sentiment is down, but economic statistics remain relatively strong. The stock market is regularly reaching new all-time highs. What is America to make of this, heading toward November’s midterms?

Recent consumer and voter surveys all point to dissatisfaction. According to Gallup, only 59 percent of Americans expect high-quality lives in the next five years — the lowest reading since Gallup started polling the question almost 20 years ago. Gallup also found that current life satisfaction rating is low: Only 62 percent say they are now satisfied.

Rasmussen also found that, more than a year into President Trump’s second term, 56 percent of respondents say they are not better off. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index recently fell to its lowest level (84.5) since 2014. 

In contrast to consumer readings, economic statistics are comparatively strong. U.S. inflation slowed to 2.4 percent in January and remained there in February, down from 2.7 percent in December and lower than expected. Median weekly real earnings in 2025’s second and third quarters are higher than 2024’s fourth quarter, and with the exception of the 2020 pandemic blips, are the highest ever; this means Americans are earning more in real terms. 

In January, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3 percent before ticking up slightly to 4.4 percent in February, but it remains low and has stayed within a narrow band since November 2024.

The American economy grew a whopping 4.4 percent rate in the third quarter and 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 — the two largest........

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