Planning endgames in Iran, Ukraine and Taiwan must start now

All wars, even those lasting decades, eventually end. Although few wars end as decisively as World War II and the unconditional surrender of the Axis powers to the allies. The Korean War has not technically ended with a peace agreement or treaty.

By mid-1943, the U.S. began planning for the occupation of the enemy powers that ultimately produced the Marshall Plan and the rebuilding of Germany, Japan and Italy. The basis was not solely humanitarian. The Allies recognized that the treatment of Wilhelmine Germany at the Versailles Conference in 1919 had spawned the rise of Hitler and Naziism, and an autocratic and aggressive leadership in Tokyo and could not be left in power.

For a thought experiment, consider how the termination of the wars in Ukraine and Iran and the conflict over Taiwan might affect global politics, stability and the future. Obviously, it is impossible to predict with any certainty who the winners and losers will be. But logically, a conflict has three possible outcomes with various subsets.

The reality in this case, based on the history of how the wars in Vietnam, in Afghanistan against the British, Russians and Soviets and in Iraq’s most recent war against America, outcomes for the external aggressor were not favorable. Does history favor the home team today and tomorrow, as it has for the past 80 years, especially since the superior military power thus far has been unable to use that advantage to win?

Against that context, the first possible outcome is that one side or the other will emerge, if not........

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