Saudi-Israel normalization may come, but don’t expect a warm peace

President Trump has made normalization with Israel a condition for moving forward with U.S.-Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation, while Washington has deepened defense ties with Riyadh. The Saudis have not publicly accepted Trump’s quid pro quo and continue to demand meaningful progress toward Palestinian statehood.

Trump may accomplish during his remaining term what seemed impossible after Oct. 7, Saudi recognition of Israel. But Washington should not confuse a diplomatic breakthrough with a warm peace. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may be ready for a strategic relationship with Israel, but Saudi society is not ready to embrace the Jewish state.

If diplomatic relations are eventually established, almost certainly with significant American influence, the critical question is what kind of relationship will follow.

Will it resemble Israel’s relatively warm relationship with the United Arab Emirates, which has survived the enormous strains since Oct. 7? Or will it look more like Israel’s cold peace with Egypt and Jordan, essential security cooperation accompanied by considerable public hostility?

Washington too often uses the word “peace” as though Middle Eastern normalization means something resembling relations between the United States and Canada. It does not. Regional governments must contend with conservative domestic politics, Islamist religious currents, ahistorical grievances, and populations whose attitudes toward Israel can be far more hostile than those of their rulers.

Saudi Arabia illustrates the problem. Bin Salman has dramatically modernized parts of the kingdom. But Saudi society is not Riyadh’s business elite, and its attitudes toward Israel present a formidable obstacle to an Emirati-style relationship.

Recent polling underscores the challenge. In 2025, 81 percent of Saudis........

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