US-Iran talks take sudden, uncertain shift with sweeping claims on both sides

President Trump sprinted ahead Friday to take a victory lap celebrating what he said was Iran’s agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz and a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. 

But conflicting statements from Iranian officials and Israeli pushback on the terms of the ceasefire with Lebanon are raising doubt about the president’s actual successes.  

“I’m concerned that, in this round, Iran came out with the upper hand,” Danny Citrinowicz, senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, posted on the social platform X.  

Trump began Friday morning with a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon in effect and celebrated what he called the opening of the “Strait of Iran,” referring to the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Embassy in Zimbabwe joked that the term meant Trump was in a good mood. 

Then Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, wrote on X late Friday that with the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continuing, the waterway “will not remain open.”

“The President of the United States made seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false,” he wrote, according to a translation.

The waterway otherwise remains “effectively closed” as vessel movements are confined to corridors that require approval, according to Kpler, a go-to source for global trade intelligence. 

Still, markets earlier Friday responded with “cautious optimism, reflected in a short-term pullback in prices,” but any meaningful recovery in the passage of oil, gas and other goods including fertilizer “depends on a gradual return of shipowners, beginning with a tentative ‘first movers’ phase that may restore only a fraction of capacity,” Kpler said Friday.

“A full normalization in trade and confidence is likely to take months, not weeks.” 

The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is “essential” for further progress in U.S.-Iran talks, but the Strait of Hormuz remains the top concern for Trump over its impact on the global economy, according to Jon Hoffman, a research fellow at Cato Institute. 

“This war has quickly become a contest of who can absorb the most pain. Here, time is on Iran’s side — the longer the strait remains closed, the greater the political costs will be for President Trump,” Hoffman told The Hill on Friday. 

Larry Haas, a senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC), said he does not expect the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire to last long since the “underlying fight isn’t between Israel and Lebanon.” 

“Although there is no official peace between them, they don’t operate in ways that directly threaten one another,” Haas told The Hill on Friday. “The underlying fight continues to be between Israel and Hezbollah, and it’s just a matter of time before Hezbollah resumes that fight and Israel responds.” 

Even as the terms of the strait’s opening are unclear, the limited progress suggests Trump and Tehran are looking to soften the ground ahead of a potential second round of talks for a deal to end the war. Trump has suggested he would fly to Islamabad to sign an agreement, praising the Pakistanis for their mediation. 

Europe draws up plan B for strait

Meanwhile, European countries are working on a plan B to ensure movement through the Strait of Hormuz, gathering 49 countries in person and virtually for a meeting Friday to discuss plans of action. 

French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a “neutral” military operation to protect shipping in the strait.

“We will accelerate the planning work we have already launched, coordinated with the United Kingdom, to enable the establishment of a neutral mission – distinct from the belligerents – to support and secure merchant vessels transiting the Gulf,” Macron said in a statement. 

Macron said France and the U.K. will work in close coordination with the Americans and Israelis and on deconfliction efforts with the Iranians. 

Trump, however, rejected other countries’ involvement, particularly European NATO allies. 

“Now that the Hormuz Strait situation is over, I received a call from NATO asking if we would need some help. I TOLD THEM TO STAY AWAY UNLESS THEY JUST WANT TO LOAD UP THEIR SHIPS WITH OIL. They were useless when needed, a Paper Tiger,” Trump posted on social media.

Trump, while celebrating the reopening of the strait Friday, noted that the U.S. blockade installed Monday was still in “full force” until Washington and Tehran can agree to a long-lasting agreement.

Since the blockade went into effect, 19 ships tried to violate the enforcement, but turned around and went back to port following the warnings from the U.S. military, according to Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of the U.S. Central Command.  

Trump posted on social media what appears to be his red lines in a deal to end the war: that Iran hand over all its “nuclear dust,” presumably referring to stockpiles of enriched uranium, and rejecting reports that he would provide Iran with $20 billion in exchange.

“No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form,” he wrote on Truth Social. 

He claimed Iran agreed to no nuclear enrichment in a brief phone call with NewsNation, The Hill’s sister network. 

Iran’s response to Trump’s claim is not yet clear. The Islamic Republic has kept as a core national interest what it says is its right to enrich uranium. 

“The Iranian nuclear file is highly complex and open to interpretation,” Citrinowicz wrote in a post. 

“A lack of understanding can prevent an agreement altogether, as seen in the past, but it can also lead to a flawed deal, full of gaps, ambiguities, and loopholes,” he said, pointing out that Iran’s negotiators are deeply experienced. 

In another bid to push the negotiations with Iran forward, Trump said he was “prohibiting” Israel from bombing Lebanon, a key ask from the Iranians. 

“Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A.,” Trump posted. 

Israel caught off guard

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was reportedly shocked to see Trump’s social media post prohibiting Israel from striking Lebanon, with Israel maintaining that the terms of the ceasefire allowed it to respond to threats from Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed military and political group controlling the south of the country. 

Axios reported that Israeli officials asked the White House for clarification and that the president’s comments contradicted the original ceasefire agreement.

A U.S. official told Axios that the ceasefire agreement preserves Israel’s right to self-defense against “planned, imminent or ongoing attacks.”

The U.S. and Israel want to work together on addressing the shared threat of Iran, but Washington seems to be less concerned than Israel about Iran’s proxy groups, including Hezbollah, which is designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. government, according to Haas, of the AFPC. 

“For Israel, the fight with Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas are individually and combined, fights to the finish because, for Israel, each of those parties is a genocidal threat,” Haas said. “For the United States, the threat from the proxies is far less immediate. It wants them defeated, but not with same interest and urgency as Israel.” 

Trump under increasing political pressure

Trump is under growing political pressure to end the war, with at least three Republicans signaling they want Congress to weigh in on military operations if the fighting goes beyond 60 days. 

“It is very likely that I would vote not to authorize further hostilities,” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said at the Semafor World Economy summit, adding that she always wanted Operation Epic Fury to be “brief but successful.”

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who has been critical of some of the administration’s efforts and is not running for reelection, told NBC News that it would be tough to get his backing to extend the conflict past the 60-day mark. 

“What’s concerning me now is we’re coming up on the 45-day mark,” Tillis told the news outlet. ”Sixty days is important with respect to the War Powers Resolution, and I’m not quite clear what the strategic objectives are.”

On Wednesday, GOP senators sunk a fourth war powers resolution, largely in a party-line vote, but the conflict has highlighted the growing rift within the Republican Party as some lawmakers are voicing concerns over the length of the military operation.

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