Democrats are poised for a win in the midterms — but can they govern? 

With just under one month until the midterm elections, Democrats hold their largest advantage of the cycle.

Indeed, NBC News’s polling average puts Democrats’ generic ballot lead at 9 points, identical to Nate Silver’s tracker and RealClearPolitics’s aggregate. Gamblers agree: Democrats also show a 62 percent chance of sweeping both chambers on prediction site Kalshi.

Moreover, a New York Times analysis of primaries in Senate battleground states underscores that Democrats are considerably more motivated than Republicans. Compared to 2022, as the article notes, Democrats saw higher turnout in 17 of the 22 states with contested primaries for governor or Senate, whereas Republicans saw lower turnout in two-thirds of such contests. 

This happened in red and purple states alike. Nearly 600,000 more Democrats voted than Republicans in Michigan. In Texas, Democrats outvoted Republicans by 150,000 votes, a swing of more than 1 million votes versus 2022.

To be sure, the Democrats’ polling leads come from legitimate concerns voters have with Republicans. Inflation continues eroding Americans’ paychecks — consumer prices rose 3.4 percent year over year for August, outpacing wage gains. The national average for gasoline remains above $4.40 per gallon, more than 30 percent higher than a year ago, and diesel prices — crucial for transportation and farming — are at historic highs, with those costs filtering into food and goods.  

Finally, mortgage rates continue to rise, keeping homes unaffordable for millions of Americans. 

As a result, Americans feel worse about the economy today than at nearly any point on record. September’s consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan fell........

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