Just how bad are midterm polls for Republicans?

The 2026 midterms have largely become a contest over which party can persuade voters that the other is out of touch, too extreme and unfit to govern. Right now, Democrats are winning that argument by a margin few would have thought possible just one election after their 2024 defeat. 

Nationally, 53 percent of voters chose Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, compared with 41 percent for Republicans, in recent PBS/NPR/Marist polling. A recent Emerson survey showed a virtually identical 12-point Democratic advantage. Just as important, independents are breaking decisively toward Democrats, favoring them by 29 points in Emerson’s survey and 25 points in the Marist poll. 

Across all polls, Democrats hold a 9-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, according to RealClearPolitics.

Looking back at 2018, the last Democratic “blue wave,” the final generic congressional polling average gave Democrats a 7-point advantage. To be sure, a repeat of their 41-seat gain is unlikely because two more rounds of partisan gerrymandering and redistricting have sharply reduced the number of competitive House districts.  

Even so, Democrats appear well positioned to capture the handful of seats they need for a majority. 

The Senate is a more difficult challenge. Democrats need to win Maine, Michigan and Texas, plus Alaska, Ohio, or Iowa — assuming no Republican flips — to take control. Still, the fact that Democrats have a plausible route at all speaks to the depth of Republicans’ political concerns. 

In Maine, incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R) remains formidable against Troy Jackson (D), who replaced Graham Platner after his stunning collapse. Collins led Jackson 49 percent to 46 percent in recent New York Times-Siena polling. 

But Collins........

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