Talarico triumphs, Cornyn-Paxton face off: 5 questions after Texas Senate primaries

Blockbuster results from Texas’s Senate primaries on Tuesday have left Democrats with a rising-star candidate in state Rep. James Talarico and Republicans facing two months of bitter fighting between Sen. John Cornyn and his challenger, state Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Both sides entered Tuesday with contested battles for party nominations that could go a long way toward determining which party holds the Senate majority.

By Wednesday morning, Democrats were uniting around Talarico, with his rival Rep. Jasmine Crockett offering her full endorsement and predicting the state would turn blue. Republicans who have already endured a nasty fight between Cornyn and Paxton are bracing for more.

Here are five questions looming after this year’s first primary elections in Texas:

Who does Trump endorse Paxton-Cornyn match-up?

Trump on Wednesday teased that he would make a much-anticipated endorsement in the GOP Senate race “soon” and said he plans to ask the rival candidate to drop out after he weighs in. 

Trump on Truth Social said that both Cornyn and Paxton “ran great races, but not good enough” and that “now, this one, must be PERFECT!” 

“I will be making my Endorsement soon, and will be asking the candidate that I don’t Endorse to immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE! Is that fair? We must win in November!!!”

The GOP Senate primary is largely seen as a test of the MAGA brand in Texas, where President Trump won by 14 points in 2024’s presidential election. 

Each of the three leading contenders, including Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), touted their alignment with the president. But Trump, the GOP kingmaker who has endorsed a slate of other Texas candidates, has stayed out of the Senate contest so far. 

He told reporters in early February that he was taking a “serious look” at endorsing and later said he likes “all three of them, actually.”

Paxton, a firebrand conservative, was expected to benefit from Trump’s MAGA base and led in the polls Tuesday, but Cornyn had a slight edge as of Wednesday morning, with more than 90 percent of the vote counted.

Now that the race has slimmed down to two candidates, it’s renewing questions about whether Trump will put his finger on the scale as national Republicans push for the party to rally behind Cornyn — especially as he stares down a tough Democratic rival in Talarico.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), who warned last week that the seat could flip to Democrats, told NBC News on Wednesday that he plans to make Cornyn’s case to Trump.

Can Cornyn turn out his base in May runoff?

Texas Republicans are bracing for a prolonged, vicious fight between Paxton and Cornyn in the runoff, amid fears that a strong campaign from Talarico jeopardizes the seat and the GOP’s Senate majority.

Although Cornyn outpaced some expectations in the primary, more voters collectively chose either Paxton or Hunt on Tuesday. The four-term incumbent will likely need to work overtime to turn out the numbers required to defeat the state attorney general in their May showdown.

Runoffs “tend to benefit more conservative, anti-establishment candidates,” Cook Political Report analysts said in a report on the results. “And there’s no guarantee that Paxton’s famously loyal base will abandon him, even if Trump directs them to by endorsing Cornyn as the stronger general election candidate.”

Cornyn has argued that controversy around Paxton — who was impeached by the state House and acquitted by the state Senate of corruption charges in 2023 — would be more of a liability in the general election.

“If he’s nominated, there’s a high risk that Paxton would lose this Senate seat, taking five congressional seats down with him,” Cornyn said at a press conference Tuesday night.

Do Democrats try to boost Paxton?

One looming question ahead of November is whether Democrats will seek to elevate Paxton in the GOP runoff.

Republicans had sought to boost Crockett in the Democratic primary against Talarico, seeing her as the more vulnerable candidate given her controversial swipes at some GOP lawmakers and state leaders.

Yet, that effort ultimately backfired, with Talarico winning the Democratic contest outright and thereby avoiding a grueling runoff against the congresswoman.

This tactic is not unique. Democrats elevated Republicans Dan Cox and Doug Mastriano in their respective gubernatorial contests against Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D), with the latter two ultimately cruising to victory in November 2022.

But this strategy hasn’t always proven successful. In Colorado, Democrats tried last cycle to elevate former state Rep. Ron Hanks over Rep. Jeff Hurd in the GOP primary for Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District. The ploy ultimately failed, with Hurd winning his primary and the general election.

How does Talarico tackle GOP runoff?

Talarico’s outright win offers the Presbyterian seminarian the chance to introduce himself to the entire Texas electorate and define his candidacy. But his victory also raises questions about how he’ll craft his message around the Republican Senate runoff.

The progressive state representative could start to forcefully target Cornyn in the race as the GOP works in overtime to hoist the incumbent’s candidacy. He could also focus his attacks on Paxton, with the scandal-ridden Texas attorney general seen as the more vulnerable candidate on the GOP ballot.

Talarico could also set his sights on both Cornyn and Paxton to cover all bases heading into the November general election, as the Democratic nominee has started to offer some clues on his messaging strategy.

“Paxton and Cornyn, they’re different. Paxton was guilty of illegal corruption. That’s why my colleagues and I impeached him in the Texas House,” Talarico told Politico ahead of Tuesday.

“But Cornyn is guilty of legalized corruption. He was the deciding vote on the ‘Big, Ugly, Bill,’ which kicked millions of Texans off their health care, took food out of the mouths of hungry Texas kids all to give tax breaks to his donors,” Talarico added.

How does high court’s ruling in Dallas play out?

Questions also swirl over the status of a portion of votes in Dallas County. The populous county has different polling locations for Republican and Democratic primaries, which drew confusion from voters who were turned away at some sites Tuesday. A similar issue occurred in Williamson County.

This prompted Democrats to ask for an extension of voting hours in the county, and a local judge allowed for voting to be lengthened for two more hours. But the Texas Supreme Court temporarily halted that decision after Paxton appealed, ordering for any votes cast after 8 p.m. ET to be separated from the final tally.

Amid this uncertainty, the Texas high court’s decision doesn’t appear to have seriously impacted the race on either side, as Crockett has already conceded, and Cornyn and Paxton were already headed into a runoff.

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