Swalwell’s exit shakes up California governor’s race

Rep. Eric Swalwell’s (D-Calif.) suspension of his California gubernatorial bid is injecting fresh uncertainty into the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom (D).

The congressman’s campaign rapidly devolved over the weekend, when prominent organizations and lawmakers rescinded their endorsements over sexual misconduct allegations against the California Democrat. Although Swalwell has denied any wrongdoing, he was unable to contain the growing fallout and announced he would drop out of the race on Sunday

While Democratic strategists suggest the scandal could position either billionaire Tom Steyer or former Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) as the party’s frontrunners, they maintain that Swalwell’s exit has thrown the crowded race wide open.

“I think it’s anyone’s game,” said Democratic strategist Andrew Acosta.

Swallwell’s name will still appear on the June 2 primary ballot while more than a half-dozen serious Democratic candidates and two top Republican contenders seek to succeed Newsom.

The top two vote-getters in the open primary will advance to the November general election regardless of party affiliation, a dynamic that created a rare opening for Republicans in the blue stronghold as Democrats splinter the party’s vote.

“One in five voters appears to be undecided,” said David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University in California. “That’s a big number at this point, with absentees going out three weeks.”

Ahead of this weekend’s allegations, Swalwell was gaining momentum in the polls. A polling average of California gubernatorial surveys compiled by Decision Desk HQ showed Swalwell as the Democratic frontrunner.

Republican and former Fox News host Steve Hilton, who received President Trump’s endorsement last week, earned 18 percent support while Swalwell boasted 14 percent, and Bianco and Steyer had 12 percent.

But any chances of Democrats coalescing around Swalwell were quashed in a span of 48 hours this weekend, when The San Francisco Chronicle and CNN reported that the congressman allegedly sexually assaulted a former aide twice. The former staffer said they were too intoxicated to consent in both instances.

Swalwell almost immediately lost major endorsements from labor unions while staffers quit the campaign and Democratic leaders pressed for the congressman to drop out of the race. The Manhattan District Attorney’s office said it would investigate Swalwell regarding an alleged incident in New York City.  

Swalwell has denied the accusations and called the claims “false.”  

“To my family, staff, friends, and supporters, I am deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past. I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s,” Swalwell said in a social media post announcing his decision to end the campaign.

Now, Democrat strategists are suggesting that Steyer might stand to benefit from Swallwell’s exit.

“The Democratic field was still pretty muddled even after Swalwell took a small lead,” Democratic strategist Garry South, a veteran of multiple California gubernatorial campaigns, told The Hill ahead of Swalwell’s exit from the race.

“You could say at this late date that it might be Steyer’s to lose because he has unlimited money, and he’s the only candidate who really has money, but the guy’s already spent north of $120 million so far and he’s exactly at 12 percent, so he’s not really selling like hot cakes,” South said. 

Steyer has positioned himself as a progressive, aligning himself with leaders like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif). Democratic strategist Roger Salazar suggested that Steyer is now a likely a contender for some of the labor endorsments Swalwell initially secured.

The California billionaire did already pick up some endorsements from state legislators that first endorsed Swalwell, including Democratic Assemblymembers Nick Schulz, Tasha Boerner and Corey Jackson, per Politico.

Acosta, meanwhile, wondered if Porter could capitalize on Swalwell’s departure and attract more centrist voters, claiming the former House lawmaker and congressman were “sort of fishing out of the same pond.”

“Will those folks, you know, kind of kick the tires or move back to her? We’ll see,” he said, adding that Steyer is “definitely going hard to the left.”

Even without Swalwell, questions remain about whether Democratic candidates will split the June vote to advance two Republican candidates to the November general election. Although, some Democrats are casting doubt on the possibility.

In a model developed by California Democratic data expert Paul Mitchell using polling and betting market information, two Republicans emerged as the top vote-getters in roughly 13 percent of hypothetical outcomes.  

The sizeable possibility — based off data from before Swalwell’s suspension — has raised red flags for Democrats in the Golden State, which hasn’t elected a Republican governor in two decades. The state party chair has called for candidates to reconsider their bids and consolidate support.  

But it remains to be seen what impacts Swalwell’s exit could have across the aisle, as California Republicans have yet to consolidate around a single candidate.

At the state party’s convention over the weekend, neither Republican Riverside County Sherriff Chad Bianco nor Hilton reached the 60 percent threshold of support needed to earn the official GOP nod.  

“Swalwell’s pull-out from the race does not help Republicans,” said California Republican strategist Matt Klink. He argued it’s unlikely that Swalwell supporters, many of whom flocked to him over his anti-Trump stance, move to back either of the leading Republicans. 

Still, energy around the governor’s race could have implications down the ballot, as Democrats seek to capitalize on the success of Proposition 50, the redistricting plan that could net them five House seats in the fight for control of Congress. 

“The way Democrats win the house is by winning California and winning upstate New York. Those two places have to materialize to have a big wave,” McCuan said. “And that means that Swalwell supporters, who tend to be liberal, whites and above average income, they flock someplace.” 

Together with Swalwell’s exit, Trump’s endorsement for Hilton “almost assured” a Republican-versus-Democrat general election, Klink said, while the race is still “wide open” on the Democratic side.  

“I think that there are very few people in that were voting for Eric Swalwell that will say,’ if Eric’s out, I’m out.’ They’re going to move somewhere,” Klink said. “I think that over the next two weeks that this race is going to significantly change.” 

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