Florida extends Democratic winning streak: 5 takeaways

Democrats in Florida had a good night on Tuesday, flipping two state Legislature seats in districts President Trump carried two years ago to give the party a boost as it looks to make inroads in red states ahead of November.

The party scored wins in contests for a Florida state House seat that represents Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, as well as a Tampa-area state Senate race. Trump won in those districts by 11 and 9 percentage points, respectively, in 2024.

The victories were particularly personal for Florida Democrats, who are looking to slowly reverse a string of state and federal losses over the past several years while also sustaining the wind in the party’s sails as it looks to flip the House this fall.

The top deals of the Amazon Big Spring Sale

Clearance sales under $50

Stock up on everyday essentials

BestReviews is reader-supported and may earn an affiliate commission.

Here are five takeaways from the special elections in Florida:

GOP struggles to flip key seats

Tuesday’s Democratic wins in Florida underscored some of the difficulties Republicans have faced on the campaign trail since Trump’s 2024 presidential win.

Over the past several months, Democrats have gained ground in GOP districts, where the party has flipped a number of local seats in some districts that Trump won by double digits last cycle.

In August, the party broke the Republican supermajority in the Iowa state Senate after flipping a seat. The party then went on to elect a Democratic mayor in Miami for the first time in decades in December, while also clinching GOP-held state House and Senate seats in Texas, New Hampshire and Arkansas earlier this year.

Republicans, on the other hand, have not flipped any state legislative seats this cycle, according to a Newsweek fact check.

Some Democrats have framed this trend as representative of voters’ unhappiness with the president and his policies.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) took a victory lap after Tuesday’s results in Florida, but he was quick to suggest that GOP lawmakers could suffer another blow during a scheduled redistricting session in Tallahassee slated to kick off next month.

“We will crush House Republicans in November if [GOP Florida Gov. Ron] DeSantis tries to gerrymander the Florida congressional map,” Jeffries wrote on the social platform X.

The GOP did hold on to Florida House District 51 in Polk County on Tuesday.

Voters deliver personal rebuke to Trump on home turf

Trump’s neighbors in Palm Beach County rebuked his chosen candidate on Tuesday.

The president backed GOP financial adviser Jon Maples in the race for Florida’s 87th House District, where Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort is. The resort is Trump’s primary residence, and he regularly travels between Washington and Palm Beach.

But the president’s support was not enough for Maples to pull it off. Democrat Emily Gregory, a health fitness small business owner, instead nabbed the seat.

Gregory enjoyed backing from national groups, such as the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC), who saw the race as a way to both figuratively and literally rebuke the president in his stomping grounds.

“Mar-a-Lago’s state House district just flipped from red to blue, which should have Republicans worried about their chances this November,” DLCC President Heather Williams said Tuesday. “A Trump +11 district in his own backyard shouldn’t be in play for Democrats, but tonight proves Republicans are vulnerable everywhere.”

Special election wins boost Democratic confidence

The two wins on Tuesday offered another confidence boost to Democrats, who are seeking to flip the House and chip away at the GOP majority in the Senate this fall. But, perhaps most notably, they have also sparked broader optimism about inroads in ruby-red Florida.

Florida Democrats have not won a statewide election since 2018, when Nikki Fried, who now serves as the state’s Democratic Party chair, was elected as agriculture commissioner.

“FLORIDA IS IN PLAY!” wrote Miami-based Democratic pollster Fernand Amandi, an alum of former President Obama’s campaign, on X.

Amandi pointed to the Florida governor’s race, where former Rep. David Jolly is running for the Democratic nod. Jolly previously was a member of the Republican Party.

“[Jolly] can WIN the Florida Governor’s race! How do we know?” said Amandi, who is working on Jolly’s campaign. “Two shocking political results in Florida tonight: 1. Democrat Emily Gregory flips Mar-A-Lago in HD-87 with a +22 Dem swing! 2. Dem Brian Nathan flips a MAGA @GOP State Senate seat!” 

Democratic base maintains energy ahead of midterms

The special elections also signal that the Democratic base remains energized heading into November, even in races where they hold a disadvantage financially or in the makeup of the voting electorate. 

“This is the key takeaway from tonight: Democrats didn’t win because of quirky special election turnout,” wrote Zachary Donnini, the head of data science at Vote Hub, on social media about the Florida Senate District 14 results. “The electorates were still double-digit Republican — and Democrats won anyway.”

The results were particularly notable in the Tampa-area state Senate race because GOP voters dominate the district. Republican state Rep. Josie Tomkow outspent Democrat Brian Nathan by a 3-to-1 margin, according to the Tampa Bay Times. A Democrat last represented the district in 2016.

Nathan beat Tomkow by about half a percentage point — just more than 400 votes — according to Decision Desk HQ.

GOP candidates seek redemption in November

Some candidates who have lost in special elections recently aren’t calling it quits just yet. Although Tomkow fell short on Tuesday, she said she likely will run for the seat’s full term later this year, according to Fox 13 News.

Republicans are also brushing off the idea that recent special elections could have any implications for bigger races this year in Florida — and across the country.

“I don’t expect the governor or Senate races here to be close,” Republican donor Dan Eberhart said Tuesday.

The Republican National Committee has also echoed this view, with a senior adviser telling Axios, “A low-turnout state House special election is a snapshot of local quirks, candidate dynamics, and turnout math — not some grand verdict.” 

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Hegseth: Military chaplains will no longer display rank

Senate GOP-backed deal to end DHS shutdown draws extensive fire

Here are Iran’s 5 conditions for ending war after rejecting US ceasefire plan

Murphy on ‘$1.5 BILLION’ stock trade before Trump Iran ...

Jeffries warns Republicans on redistricting after Democrat flips Mar-a-Lago seat

Trump makes public call for clean 18-month 702 extension

Cruz asks Senate to hold his salary during DHS shutdown

Navarro: Supreme Court ruling on tariffs ‘best possible outcome’ for ...

The SAVE America Act is bad news for Republicans

Smith memo: Trump had classified docs shared with just 6 people, others tied to ...

Supreme Court rules for Cox in Sony copyright fight over music downloads

Live updates: Leavitt won’t confirm upcoming Iran talks; DHS funding has ...

Judge refuses to drop lawsuit over Musk role as Trump adviser

Iran dismisses US ceasefire proposal: State news agency

AFGE president tells lawmakers ‘do not get on a plane’ for Easter recess ...

US issues ‘worldwide caution’ alert to travelers

Roberts tasked with trying to tame Supreme Court

Florida extends Democratic winning streak: 5 takeaways

© The Hill