Washington’s self-induced energy crisis leaves Moscow as the only option

Washington did not intend to strengthen Russia when it launched its campaign against Tehran. But that is exactly what is happening. And the longer this conflict drags on, the more the global energy crisis is exacerbated. Russia’s war chest will only accelerate in its rate of replenishment — not despite U.S. policy, but because of it. 

With now roughly one-fifth of global energy flows removed due to the closure of Hormuz, the world has seen the effects firsthand. Tanker traffic has ground to a halt. Insurance costs have surged. 

The U.S. has not seen extreme impacts, but countries across Asia and Oceania now face increasingly tightening supply conditions with fewer viable alternatives. Energy demand did not simply vanish when Hormuz shut down. That shift is where the policy failure begins to show. 

In response to rising prices and increasing political pressure, Washington quickly introduced a flurry of waivers of sanctions tied to Russian energy. Several general licenses authorizing the sale of Russian crude oil were meant to temper rapidly rising energy markets. They failed. 

These licenses were released reactively and showed a clear lack of planning. In the case of general license 134, the initial wording didn’t even account for deliveries to obvious jurisdictions like Cuba and North Korea, requiring a rapid amendment to form general license 134A. Across the board, the total lack of transparency and coherence has made it nearly impossible to quantify the full impact of these waivers in real time. 

The poor communication from Bessent only made the optics more offensive. From “jiu-jistuing” our adversaries to the unpredictable........

© The Hill