Iran war rejected: Trump’s credibility gap widens

“Trump Net Approval Drops to Record Low.” That’s the headline from the YouGov story about the new national survey it conducted last week for The Economist. His overall performance score comes in at net negative 23 percent, which puts him as deep underwater as the Great Marianas Trench in the Pacific Ocean. Trump’s ratings have been in intensive care for months but the controversy over starting a war against Iran a month ago have put them on life support.

Iran is a big problem for the president. You don’t need a meteorologist to know which way the wind is blowing. Americans oppose the war by a 2-to-1 margin. While Republicans still support the conflict, opposition to his misguided military misadventure is high in every demographic public subgroup.

Trump also suffers from a significant credibility gap. A clear majority of people believe he hasn’t provided accurate information about the progress of the war. Things could soon even get worse for the commander in chief if he decides to put U.S. troops on Iranian ground. Only one out of every six surveyed favor the use of U.S. ground forces against the Middle Eastern nation.

There are two reasons why the situation has gone from bad to worse for Trump. He failed to demonstrate at the onset that Iran was a serious threat to U.S. national security and the assault weaponized existing public concerns about his failure to reduce inflationary prices.

First, Trump’s attack against Iran is a war of choice not a conflict of necessity.

Now we know why he signed an executive order changing the name of the Department of Defense to the Department of War. There was no Pearl Harbor-style attack on U.S. soil which prompted a patriotic demand for revenge. The 9/11 al Qaeda attacks created a public groundswell to go after Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan. Without a dramatic casus belli, he needed to make a compelling case about the need for war. The Donald failed and now he’s paying for his decision to go to war without galvanizing the public.

His administration’s actions since the beginning of the conflict have only made a bad situation worse. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the U.S. joined the attack after Israel decided to go in guns blazing first. We don’t want a foreign tail wagging the American dog.

People do want cheaper butter not expensive guns. Instead, the president just proposed a budget from his upside down world for fiscal 2027 that would increase Pentagon spending by 40 percent to $1.7 trillion dollars a year and reduce spending 10 percent or $75 billion for vital non-defense social programs like health care, housing and environmental protection.

Second, the attack against Iran has driven increases in oil prices which in turn have accelerated public concerns about inflation.

American were struggling to make ends meet even before Trump started the war. Now the struggle for hard-working families to feed their children is even more acute. The conflict led to a big increase in gas prices by a dollar nationally since Feb. 28 according to AAA.

The new U.S. attacks on Iranian oil refineries on Kharg Island will intensify the economic fallout. Companies like Amazon and UPS have already added transportation surcharges and the cost of jet fuel has skyrocketed. Rising transportation costs will lead to higher food prices that will be difficult for hard-pressed consumers to bear or Trump’s failed economy to endure.

Trump’s political liability is that he broke two key promises he made to the American people in his desperate bid to win a second term during the 2024 presidential campaign. He pledged to reduce prices and told voters that he would put “America First.” He’s batting 0 for 2 on those two vows. One more strike and he’s out.

Trump’s failure to address public concerns about the war before the start of hostilities meant that the quest for public support was dead on arrival. So are the prospects for a enduring Middle East peace. And his prospects for winning that Nobel Peace Prize, he covets so much. Those trains have already left the station.

Brad Bannon is a national Democratic strategist and CEO of Bannon Communications. He writes weekly for The Hill and hosts the popular progressive podcast on power, politics and policy, Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.

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