‘Chances remain high for a historic event’: El Niño is strengthening, forecasters warn

(NEXSTAR) – We already knew this year’s El Niño was shaping up to be the strongest in recorded history, but now forecasters are warning that the weather pattern is only getting stronger.

In its latest discussion on Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said El Niño “strengthened further last month,” with “a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely” from January through March.

Multiple models have shown that El Niño is expected to continue strengthening through the end of the year.

“Chances remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950,” the latest guidance from the CPC explained. “With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed.”

Late last month, Columbia University climate scientist Azhar Ehsan, in a briefing to the media, provided a chart showing the probability of El Niño lasting until spring was “100% to 99%.”

“I wrote near-certain but it’s 100%,” he said at the time.

As it has been, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center agrees El Niño is 100% sticking........

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