Something is afoot. The bookies can feel it. “Badenoch overtakes Farage as favourite to be next prime minister,” was the word from betting website William Hill this week.

Let me tell you what is happening. This is a challenging political time. Even today, there is controversy for Kemi Badenoch to deal with. But as a Conservative it seems to me that in the past few tumultuous weeks, she has shown many of the qualities necessary in a party leader: to appear easy-going and humorous; to craft a style that teases her opponents rather than being snide or unkind; and to do this all confidently enough to leave sceptics thinking that she really could be the next prime minister.

This easygoing style was frustrating for Keir Starmer. Badenoch’s riposte to his defence of his economic record – “if it’s all going so fine, why is he resigning?” – was spontaneous, humorous and deadly. The opposition cheered, the government benches stared at their feet. And this style will soon challenge Andy Burnham once MPs actually get the chance to cross-question him on his deluge of summer announcements. “Not being Starmer” may work in the dog days of August, but that won’t last long.

Burnham has been fortunate: few prime ministers have had such a gentle induction into life at the top. But the interaction between Badenoch’s fluency (which is about pitch perfect at the moment) and Burnham’s northern mateyness (which is also going down surprisingly well) is about to become more intense and take on new significance. Badenoch is being careful to avoid being cast as a more digestible version of Nigel Farage or the sort of Tory relic that voters grew weary of. If she can keep........

© The Guardian