Waging war with no fixed purpose means victory can be declared at any point. Donald Trump’s motives for launching Operation Epic Fury against Iran were incoherent at the start. They are no clearer now that he has declared it “very complete, pretty much”.

US and Israeli bombs have caused death and destruction, shaking but not toppling the government in Tehran. Among the targets was the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. He has been replaced by his son – an “unacceptable” candidate in the US president’s evaluation.

Regime change was the plan, but Trump finds it easier to change plans than regimes. What began as a long-haul commitment to roll back decades of Islamic revolution has become a “short-term excursion” to neutralise Iran’s military capabilities.

Trump has not quite declared “mission accomplished”. He says he has won, but also that he has more winning to do. This is the familiar stage of rhetorical climbdown, indicating dawning awareness that a problem is more complicated than the president initially thought. Complexity resists his whim. It bores him.

Iran turns out to be unlike Venezuela, except in a superficial analysis as energy-exporting countries with a history of hostile relations with Washington. The model of regime decapitation and coercion that saw Nicolás Maduro kidnapped from Caracas and replaced with his compliant vice-president earlier this year whetted Trump’s appetite for an Iranian sequel. But the Islamic Republic has reserves of ideological and institutional resilience. It can also spook international markets by menacing trade in the Gulf.

The White House seems not to have anticipated the predictable economic repercussions of war in the Middle East – soaring oil prices, falling stock markets, disrupted supply chains feeding inflation and choking growth.

Flashing red lights on the financial dashboard were surely the prompt........

© The Guardian