When Joe Biden entered the White House in 2021 it was possible to believe that Donald Trump’s reign had been an aberration. “America is back. The transatlantic alliance is back,” the new president declared to relieved European leaders shortly after winning the 2020 race. It was true, but not for long.

Trump’s defeat proved that US democracy was mechanically operational, not culturally robust. His supporters tried violent subversion to prevent the inauguration of a successor. A second term should have been unthinkable. Republicans who failed to denounce the 6 January insurrection should have been unelectable. Instead, within four years, US voters reinstated the champion of a failed coup against their cherished constitution as commander-in-chief.

That is worth remembering in any analysis of midterm congressional elections. Voting was under way at the time of writing. Opinion polls in the run-up favoured Democrats. But it is a measure of how grievously Trump has imperilled democracy that peaceful completion of that process, followed by a fair count, cannot be anticipated with confidence.

The most that can be said is that the elections were not aborted, nor did they look blatantly rigged on the eve of polling, which gives hope that the balloting process can still function in theory. That is no protection against a president with a record of denying results that displease him and a party that cravenly endorses every lie and coercion he deploys to consolidate his power.

With two years left in his second term, Trump has ample scope to punish disloyalty and reward sycophants. Facing a choice between election integrity and partisan venality, precedent suggests few Republicans prefer the path of constitutional virtue. That moral collapse in the ruling party is salient for some voters,........

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