Odd things are happening in the markets. Last Monday, 15 minutes before Donald Trump posted an announcement that “productive talks” with Iran had taken place, oil traders placed half a billion dollars’ worth of bets on the future price of oil. Trump’s statement triggered a drop in crude oil prices, and it seems as if some people knew that the announcement was coming, and so a profitable wager was made. Do not be envious; some people are just born lucky.

We do not know if the transactions were made with prior knowledge of political developments, but it’s a hell of a coincidence. It all appears “abnormal for sure”, an oil analyst told the BBC.

The suspiciously timed trades, if they were indeed placed through insider knowledge, would be only a part of a broader betting bonanza that reduces political outcomes to windfall-making opportunities. Take Polymarket, an online prediction market that took off in the early 2020s and allows you to bet on anything from the result of the Super Bowl, to whether Trump is going to invade another country.

Before the US attack on Iran, several new accounts on the platform predicted the timing of the US/Israeli strikes, just 24 hours before they happened. The same pattern was identified after the US coup in Venezuela in January. A single account, set up only a few days before military action occurred, made more than $400,000. As a result of these transactions, people are naturally asking if it is possible that the president of the United States or his associates are illegally profiting from political power, while also finding that it is almost impossible to answer........

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