Russia’s war on Ukraine is now in its fifth year and a ceasefire remains elusive. The US’s attention is divided, limiting external pressure for compromise, while Moscow and Kyiv both still believe they can strengthen their respective negotiating positions through battlefield gains.

At some point, however, a deal will have to be done. The parameters of that deal are already understood by negotiators on all sides. Russia will give up on its original war aims and Ukraine will make de-facto territorial concessions. The US will provide Kyiv with security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression and the EU will provide Ukraine with a membership path as well as help with the country’s postwar reconstruction.

According to Ukraine’s constitution, any peace deal that Zelenskyy makes will have to be ratified by its parliament and possibly by the public in a referendum. The key to Zelenskyy being able to do a deal and sell it domestically will be the EU’s commitment to Ukrainian membership.

Ukraine joining the EU is important for several reasons. Taking on membership obligations will help drive reforms in Ukraine that root out corruption and better institutionalise the rule of law, in turn helping attract inward investment and reducing the postwar reconstruction bill for European taxpayers.

It would also equip the EU with much-needed leverage vis-a-vis the US, and ensure that European governments have a seat at the negotiating table in shaping the final agreement when that time comes.

The prospect of Ukraine joining the EU could also help to ward off a future Russian invasion. While article 42.7 of the EU treaties – the bloc’s mutual defence clause – is no substitute for the........

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