The Nobel peace prize is not a contest determined by fame. Yet the betting markets consistently gravitate towards the biggest names in global politics – among them this year, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

That misses what the prize is for. The real work of building peace is often done far from the headlines: by courts that uphold international law, journalists who document atrocities, and humanitarian organisations that protect communities. With the 2026 prize due to be announced on 9 October, the Nobel committee has an opportunity to remind the world that peace is built through institutions and cooperation, not just diplomatic grandstanding.

Despite the favourable odds, Trump will not win. A sitting president waging a war against Iran is an impossible candidate for a prize intended to advance peace. Whatever Trump’s diplomatic efforts elsewhere, the Nobel committee will consider the totality of a candidate’s contribution – a record that now includes allegations of US war crimes.

The Ukrainian president is also unlikely to win. Awarding the Nobel peace prize to the serving commander-in-chief of a country fighting a major war would risk turning the prize into an endorsement of one side in the conflict, regardless of Ukraine’s right to defend itself. It would also sit uneasily with Alfred Nobel’s will, which called for efforts to promote “fraternity........

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