Former prime minister Stephen Harper, right, and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre during a campaign stop in Edmonton in April, 2025.JASON FRANSON/The Canadian Press

As Conservatives celebrate the 20th anniversary of Stephen Harper’s first election victory this week, there’s a lot of chatter about what Pierre Poilievre can learn from his success.

In 2006, Mr. Harper captured 36 per cent of the popular vote, and won. In 2025, Mr. Poilievre was a far better vote-getter, earning 41 per cent of the popular vote – and lost. Those totals would appear to indicate there’s not much to gain in the way of lessons.

Actually, there was something, but it’s not learnable. The difference between the two campaigns was a matter of luck – how the wheel of fortune turned.

We analyze the entrails of elections ad infinitum, but all too often we overlook the mundane but most important factor. Who got the breaks? Over the last century, it’s most often been the Liberals.

Starting with R.B. Bennett’s government having to serve through the Great Depression, up to the phenomenal turn of events that saw Mark Carney’s Liberals upend Mr. Poilievre’s Conservatives last year, fortune’s tides have long gone the Liberals’ way.

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