In the next few weeks, ships carrying imported wheat will begin arriving at Pakistani ports. At almost the same time, farmers across Punjab and Sindh will be putting the next crop into the ground. These two events tell the same story. Pakistan is importing wheat because the last harvest fell short. The government has ordered one million tonnes. The Trading Corporation of Pakistan has already contracted 365,000 tonnes at nearly $349 a tonne. Meanwhile, the crop meant to reduce that dependence is starting life under a 22 percent water shortage, approved by the Indus River System Authority on October 6.

The stakes are concentrated in two provinces. Last season, Punjab produced 22.04 million tonnes and Sindh contributed 4.40 million tonnes, generating the bulk of the national crop. While initial space-based forecasts projected a baseline of 27.48 million tonnes, finalized year-end estimates placed national output at 29.61 million tonnes. Even at that higher figure, it fell short against a national consumption requirement of 31.9 million tonnes.

Under the distribution formula used to manage shortages, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan are exempt from cuts. The deficit falls entirely on Punjab and Sindh. This means that any avoidable release or political accommodation during Kharif directly intensifies the burden on the two provinces responsible for the national wheat crop.

A Sindh or Punjab farmer does not experience the percent shortage as a statistic. He experiences it as a shortened canal turn, a delayed irrigation, a longer-running tubewell and a climbing diesel bill. The household buying flour next year will see none of this. They will only see the price of atta. The chain of consequence begins upstream.

Pakistan entered Rabi with 9.34 million acre-feet in storage, down from 13.2 million acre-feet a year earlier. The physical capacity to bridge summer river flows and winter........

© The Friday Times