The grain is counted when it leaves the field. Hunger is counted when it reaches the child. Between those two measurements lies much of Pakistan’s failure. The 2026 Global Hunger Index gives Pakistan a score of 25.5, worse than its recalculated 2018 score of 24.0. One in six Pakistanis is undernourished, and one in three children under five is stunted. The index records improvements in child stunting and mortality over that period, but worsening undernourishment and wasting. Progress has not simply slowed. On important measures, it has gone into reverse.

We will respond in the familiar way. Farmers will demand higher crop prices. Consumers will demand cheaper flour. Officials will announce targets, release stocks, change import rules or blame the weather. Each response may address an immediate grievance. None answers the larger question: how can Pakistan make farming profitable enough to sustain rural livelihoods while keeping nutritious food affordable?

We discuss food security as if it were a production target. How many tonnes of wheat? How many bags are stored in government warehouses? But counting bags of wheat and calling it food security is rather like counting bricks and calling it a school. Food security begins with production; it is achieved when families have the means to obtain adequate food and the conditions to benefit nutritionally from it. The missing measure is purchasing power.

The World Bank estimates that national poverty has risen from about 22 per cent in 2018-19 to 29 per cent in 2024-25, affecting some 70 million people. Rural poverty remains more than twice urban poverty. These figures describe something agricultural production statistics do not: the shrinking ability of millions to buy what they need. In a village, the crop pays more than the landowner. It pays the tenant, tractor driver,........

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