The notion that India might attack Pakistan in 2028 is primarily rooted in the growing economic and political challenges confronting Narendra Modi. I shall discuss both factors separately and then explain how they converge to create a compound effect as Modi enters the pre-election year of 2028. It is this convergence of pressures that could compel him to launch another strike on Pakistan. The temptation will be real and compelling.

I have undertaken calculations of the Indian economy using advanced econometric methods, based on conservative data drawn from credible and independent sources. The inputs include figures from the Reserve Bank of India, the IMF, MUFG, Crisil, CMIE, PLFS and Azim Premji University. In constructing these projections, I have assumed a stable global environment: the US-Iran ceasefire holds throughout 2026–28, oil prices remain reasonably stable, and no extraordinary circumstances disrupt the flow of remittances, which currently help finance India's $119.3 billion trade deficit.

Two conclusions hold across all scenarios. First, GDP growth remains respectable, between 6 and 6.7 per cent in FY27, slipping somewhat in FY28 under stress. Secondly, youth unemployment continues to rise regardless of which oil-price or geopolitical scenario materialises. It rises from approximately 15.2 per cent today to somewhere between 16.4 and 19 per cent by FY28, even under the most optimistic assumptions. Headline growth is not the problem. The labour market for young and educated Indians is, and it deteriorates in every scenario, not merely the adverse ones.

The economics, therefore, present Modi with a structural problem that none of the scenarios resolves before the next election cycle. It establishes the precondition for the central argument: a leader unable to solve this problem through growth alone will increasingly look for something else to be seen doing. That combination—stable but unsatisfying—is arguably more dangerous for an incumbent. Even the most benign trajectory points to rising........

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