The war in the Middle East has stalemated. Notwithstanding its economic, military, and technological strength, the USA has failed to defeat Iran. The Iranian regime is intact; the war capacity of Iran, though weakened, has not been neutralized; the economic sanction regime, although in force during the past five decades, coupled with the freezing of Iran’s assets, has failed to strangle Iran economically. The recent blockade of the Iranian seaports, and new rigorous wave of economic sanctions, though hurting the economy of Iran, have failed to force it to concede any concession to its adversaries. The world is perplexed how Iran has withstood all this military, technological, economic and diplomatic onslaught from its powerful enemies.   

The current situation of the war signifies some obvious scenarios including: 1) the USA would be reluctant to launch any big airstrike on Iran or opt for any ground assault given the Iranian difficult terrain; 2) the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would continue until the USA’s acquiescence in implementing  the roadmap given in the Islamabad MoU for peace talks; 3) the Hoathi flare up has opened a new front diverting pressure from Iran with the probability  that the Hoathis would close Bab Al-Mandeb; 4) the closure of two important chokepoints for a longer period would deal a devastating blow to the global economy, and particularly the oil exports of Saudi Arabia; 5) the American allies in Middle East have borne the brunt of the war, and would further suffer if the second waterway is closed; 6) the war in Gaza, and unprovoked........

© The Friday Times