Donald Trump may have set out to change the face of the Middle East by launching a 'war of choice' or one forced on him by Israel; it seems he may just get his wish fulfilled. Over time, and not strictly in the manner of his preference by upstaging Iran and its leadership a la Venezuela, but through a set of likely consequences where the Middle East may be the architect of its own destiny. Though that is a tall order for a region of nations that are kingdoms first, and whose destiny lies in the hands of ruling families. The social contract between the ruler and the ruled ensures that the people will have security, stability and a decent life. Not a fulfilling life, but a decent life. The kingdoms assure this through oil money which keeps the subjects pacified, and by contracting out the administration and security at an attractive price. Except that with the first shot, the birds take to the air and safer shores, or where else do the contractors best need their services.

The war in Iran has been revelatory on many counts. The apparent bubble of a make-believe world cocooned within a sphere is hardly as invulnerable as it seems. The guns for hire that the region has depended on for security were as fickle as the wind, which began blowing elsewhere. The kingdoms were also structured for another kind of war. Jointly operated squadrons of fighters between locals and the contractors weren't of much help. Neither were the elaborate air defence systems idealised for assaulting waves of enemy aircraft – the enemy chose to fight a different war. Nor was there the need for the navies, which were more coastal than impactful on the blue seas. A lot will need to change, thus as a consequence of the ongoing war. And a lot may not.

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