Caught in the Middle
There are powers that look at American involvement in the Iran War as a significant opportunity to settle scores. Tying down an adversary in a war seems to be an achievable goal for them. I would earmark Russia as one such great power. However, unlike many others, I believe China holds no such ambitions; in fact, it is a great power that is caught in the middle. China's international position improved remarkably after the September 11 attacks, during the 20 years that the US was busy fighting the War on Terror. But this war, and its continuity, is considered to have hit the core of China's Achilles Heel: the disruption and discontinuity of its energy supplies. It is in this context that I want to write not just about China as a great power caught in the middle of this war, but also as an influential actor in Middle Eastern politics, and a medium power, Turkey.
Unlike popular belief, the threat to China's energy supply is not immediate but long-term. China retains a massive reserve oil stockpile of an estimated 1.4 billion barrels of oil. The daily consumption of oil by China is 15 to 17mb/d (millions of barrels per day), and considering that global oil consumption is nearly 100mb/d, this Chinese oil reserve, given the continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, can serve Chinese needs for the next 6 to 8 months. China produces 4 to 4.5mb/d, and this domestic production covers only 25% of China's total demand; the rest China imports, which is closer to 10 to 11mb/d. This makes China the largest importer of crude oil in the world. Given this reality, to........
